Hey N.H. GOP, care to make a wager with Prof. Wang?

Yellow-headed soldier fly, Cyphomyia sp. by Andreas Kay, on Flickr

Image: Andreas Kay / CC BY-NC-SA 2.0 

Data scientist Sam Wang, founder of the Princeton Election Consortium, has developed statistical methods to analyze U.S. presidential election polls with unusually high accuracy.

The associate professor of molecular biology and neuroscience at Princeton was not swayed by last week’s WMUR Granite State Poll, which declared Scott Brown and Jeanne Shaheen are in a “dead heat” for the U.S. Senate seat:


Guinta: Influx of migrants a ‘manufactured crisis’

Dump Frank Guita _2163 by ed_bltn, on Flickr

Image: Ed Bolton / CC BY 2.0 

Frank Guinta blames the recent influx of Central American migrants on a 2012 executive order by Pres. Obama that temporarily defers deportations for some migrants who entered the country as children — without mentioning the fact that the program only applies to those who have been living in the United States since 2007.

"The New York Times reported just late last week that almost 300,000 Central American migrants had been detained since April, which includes the more than 50,000 children, and that is because of an executive order issued by the president back in 2012," Guinta told radio host Jack Heath in a July 8, 2014 interview.

"President Obama issued a memorandum that’s enforced by the Department of Homeland Security which essentially says if you’re under the age of 31 but you came to this country before the age of 16, you can stay here for an additional two years," the 1st district congressional candidate continued.

"It’s called DACA, the deferred action for childhood arrivals program. So that is essentially amnesty for anyone who wants to come into the country that meets that simple age requirement," Guinta said.

As the Department of Homeland Security notes, “deferred action does not confer lawful status upon an individual, nor does it excuse any previous or subsequent periods of unlawful presence.” To be eligible for consideration, applicants must have “continuously resided in the United States since June 15, 2007.”

Nevertheless, Guinta claimed “the immediate problem” will be resolved if the president rescinds DACA. He called the influx of migrants a “manufactured crisis.”

"There’s no coincidence that the president took this executive action and then all of a sudden we had double the amount of migrants coming over the border in the course of one year," Guinta said.

"I think they’re trying to force amnesty through executive fiat and then say, well now we need two billion dollars to take care of the people that are coming across the border," he said.

"So this is somewhat of a manufactured crisis from an executive order?" asked Heath.

"I think it is," replied Guinta.

Video: NH01RawFootage


Telegraph: Garcia ‘would fit right in’ with tea-party Republicans who opted to shut down government

image

Image: youtube.com

The Nashua Telegraph today endorsed former state Sen. Gary Lambert in the 2nd congressional district GOP primary. Republicans “are fortunate to have three earnest, smart candidates,” they wrote, but Marilinda Garcia “would be our third choice in this race:”

Garcia, a state representative from Salem, has been called a rising star in the Republican Party, and she may yet emerge as the future of the state GOP, but we think a vote for Garcia would be a vote for something Washington has plenty of already — gridlock. […]

Garcia is bankrolled by the Koch brothers-wing of the party and would fit right in with the crew of tea-party Republicans who opted, less than a year ago, to shut down the government rather than raise the federal debt ceiling… .


Rep. Mark Warden calls his own advice ‘blatant political cynicism and disrespect for the process’

Image: youtube.com

At PorcFest last year, state House Rep. Mark Warden (R-Goffstown) had some advice for fellow Free Staters who were contemplating a run for political office. “We all suggest that you run in whichever party you’re more likely to get elected in that town,” he said. “Look at the voting numbers, look at the statistics, see what the voter advantage is on one side or the other and then start getting involved in that party.”

Now the shoe’s on the other foot.

In a letter to the editor published last week in The Goffstown News, Warden accused “big government apologists” of masquerading as Republicans in the race to represent Goffstown in the state House of Representatives. “This is blatant political cynicism and disrespect for the process,” he complained. "Sadly, these folks are exploiting the process by expediently running in the party where they have the best chance of winning, even though their ideology is firmly in the left-leaning camp."

Full video: RedPillRecording

h/t: Pam Manney


Quote of the day: Who cares?

 by druid labs, on Flickr

Image: druid labs / CC BY-NC-SA 2.0 

On his website, Republican gubernatorial candidate Andrew Hemingway says we should make literacy our first priority by rejecting national educational standards.

"When told, in a meeting with the Monitor’s editorial board, that in states with low standards a high school student who only reads at an elementary school level would nonetheless graduate, Hemingway said, ‘Who cares?' “


Quote of the day: Government is a treacherous beast

image

Image: facebook.com

This situation illustrates two things very clearly. One: Government, by its very nature, is a treacherous beast which instinctively feeds on the liberty of its citizens. And two: It is high time that we begin a relentless quest to bring constitutional carry to New Hampshire.

Douglas Habecker, Republican candidate for the state House of Representatives in Nashua, on changes to the state’s concealed-carry pistol license application.


Be careful what you wish for: Invasive species

kudzu by zen, on Flickr

Image: zen / CC BY-NC-SA 2.0 

In 2007, then chair of the New Hampshire GOP Fergus Cullen sowed the seeds for the party takeover by the folks he now disparages as “Tea Partiers, Ron Paul apostles and fringe figures.”

Hoping to put build a coalition to reverse Democratic gains in 2006, Cullen told Dave Weigel, “I’m excited by the fact that Ron Paul is turning on some libertarians and I hope they’ll want to get active in the Republican Party or support our Republican candidates.”

Fast forward to 2014 and Cullen now laments that the party has been overrun by an invasive species. In a Union Leader op-ed, he wrote, “Political parties have a responsibility to weed themselves of people who don’t represent their views, and primary season is the best time to do that.”

"Take the free staters," he wrote.

Video: David Weigel


Will the real Republican please stand up?

Masquerade Ball 2013 - Dove House by Everpool, on Flickr

Image: Everpool / CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 

Former New Hampshire Republican Party chair Fergus Cullen caused quite a stir among New Hampshire libertarians this week when he called out Free Staters for “masquerading” as Republicans:

In recent years a growing handful of free staters have managed to get elected to the New Hampshire legislature through, shall we say, false pretenses. Some have masqueraded as a conventional Republican or cross-dressed as a mainstream Democrat, keeping their true views hidden from voters. Mall security guards call this sort of thing willful concealment.

Free State Project chair Aaron Day, who is leading an attempt to purge the party of undesirables, responded in kind:

In recent years a growing handful of establishment Republicans have managed to get elected to the state legislature through false pretenses. Some have masqueraded as fiscally conservative — signing pledges not to raise taxes and then immediately voting for bloated government spending once elected. They have hidden their true views from voters long enough.


N.H. Senate candidate Jane Cormier accuses GOP county chair of ‘stalking’ her

image

Image: Steve Garvie / CC BY-NC-SA 2.0

In yet another sign of the fissure between GOP party regulars and conservative activists, state Senate candidate Jane Cormier (R-Hookset) has accused the chairman of the Belknap County Republican Committee of “stalking” her.

In a written statement, Cormier said county chairman Alan Glassman trespassed on her property in Alton and “surreptitiously” photographed her house and her husband’s truck in three separate visits.

According to Cormier, when Glassman was questioned by Alton police, he said he was there “documenting stolen signs.” Later that day, she said, Glassman emailed party members with details. “As I’m traveling around Belknap County, I’m noting sign locations, in case I receive word from a campaign that their signs are being damaged or removed,” he wrote. “This way, I may be able to assist them in addressing the problem.”

“The only sign located remotely near my former residence is on a distant property line,” answered Cormier. “If Mr. Glassman was ‘documenting’ signs, why did he require three separate trips to photograph nothing? I understand that politics is not for the thin-skinned,” she continued, “however, what appears to be the stalking of one of its own strikes me as quite threatening.”

It’s not the first time Cormier and Glassman have clashed. In 2012, the two had a public disagreement over the wording on her campaign signs, which described Cormier as the “conservative” candidate. Glassman told the Laconia Daily Sun “he asked her to add the word ‘Republican’ to the signs, reminding her of the line at the bottom of the placard reading ‘paid for by the Belknap County Republican Committee.’” Cormier claimed that he asked her to remove the word “conservative” from her signs and she said she proudly refused.

After the 2012 election, Cormier opposed Glassman’s reelection bid and nominated GraniteGrok owner Skip Murphy for the post. Cormier’s husband, Carlos Martinez, seconded the nomination. Glassman withstood the challenge and was reelected.

The two again clashed publicly a few months later when Cormier, who represented Belknap District 8 in the state House of Representatives, announced she had withdrawn her financial support from the county committee and formed a new group, the Belknap County Conservative Republicans. Cormier denied her intent was to “undermine” the country committee but Glassman expressed skepticism. How could she withhold financial support and then claim not to be weakening the party? he asked.

In May, with backing from conservative activists, Cormier resigned her House seat and moved to Hookset to take on incumbent Sen. Dave Boutin (R-Hookset) in a contentious primary. In the latest incident, year-old video clips of Boutin arguing in a bar surfaced on GraniteGrok. In a subsequent interview with John DiStaso, Boutin was forced to acknowledge he “exercised poor judgment" and apologized to his constituents for the incident.


Carla Gericke: Free State Project agnostic on question of secession

image

Image: Lance W. Haverkamp / CC0 1.0

Carla Gericke, president of the Free State Project, took to the pages of the Concord Monitor today to dispel the notion that the group’s ultimate goal is secession from the United States.

"The Free State Project has never supported secession," she wrote. "From the very beginning, the Frequently Asked Questions section on our website made it clear that the organization takes no stand on this issue.”

When Jason Sorens first proposed the Free State Project in 2001, he described it as a “strategy of secession.” Even when he subsequently conceded that he may have “overstated the importance” of withdrawing or threatening to withdraw from the United States, he continued to support it as an option.

"The point is to take over a state government and then advance liberty as best we can," he wrote two weeks later. "At some point this pursuit may require actually seceding or threatening to secede. However, there are various political tools at our disposal, and secession is just one of them.”

Gericke claims Sorens’ ideas on secession “never formed part of the organization.” Free Staters “have different views on this question, just as other Granite Staters do,” she explained.


Former state Rep. Alciere: ‘Nominate libertarian extremists — or we sink the Republican Party’

Republican House candidates report receiving a letter from former state Rep. Tom Alciere (R-Nashua) threatening to “sink the Republican Party” if the party fails to nominate “extreme libertarians.”

"Ron Paul Revolutionaries have proven that we can and will sink the Republican Party if our demand is not met," the letter read. "Nominate libertarian extremists, — or else!"

"To defeat the Democrats, the Republican Party must stand united, and Ron Paul Revolutionaries will never unite behind enemies of liberty," wrote Alciere. "You must unite behind libertarian extremists. Delay and denial will get you nowhere."

Alciere, you may remember, was forced to resign from the House in 2001 when his incendiary rhetoric advocating cop killings was made public. “There is nothing wrong with slaughtering a cop,” one of his messages read. “Just throw the carcass into the Dumpster with the rest of the garbage. Cops are nothing but vicious brutal thugs anyway.”

Alciere’s rhetoric has not mellowed with time. “Cops are brutal bullies in the business of intimidating humans into obeying unjust laws,” reads one of his web sites. “Cops are the scum of the Earth.”

In his message to the state GOP, Alciere wrote, “We are entitled to use any necessary means, — especially nonviolent means — to stop your government from violating our rights. If we give you a choice, you won’t comply; so we won’t give you a choice. We have to win.”

"Sometimes a rapist is so far gone, he doesn’t expect the victim to be angry at him," Alciere continued. "You’re just as crazy if you think you can vote away our freedoms and show depraved indifference to our rights without breeding hostility."


Free State Project president: Unfair to report alleged kidnapper is ‘objectivist libertarian’

Image: freestateproject.org / CC BY 3.0

Carla Gericke, president of the Free State Project, objects to press reports that mention the man accused of kidnapping Abby Hernandez referred to himself as as “objectivist libertarian.”

Nathaniel Kibby, described by neighbors as “a loner who sometimes criticized the government and owned guns,” was arrested last month and accused of holding the teen captive for nine months.

Reporters following the case revealed Kibby was arrested earlier this year on unrelated assault and trespassing charges. Their reports included the contents of a court filing in which Kibby protested being forced to surrender his guns as part of his bail conditions. “The accusation is absurd & and not credible based upon my character & and my objectivist libertarian moral code,” Kibby wrote.

Gericke doesn’t think that’s fair. “Why don’t reporters state the D/R political affiliations of other people they arrest?” she asked on Facebook. “I’d love a list of serial killers and their political affiliations. Oh wait, that would include every US prez ever,” she wrote.

image

Image: facebook.com


Miscellany Blue