December 2010
60 posts
3 tags
Quote of the Day: Sharp, Smart, Candid &...
I’ve just read through a couple of summaries. Overall, I have to say that this brief glimpse into how the government actually works is actually reassuring. The cable extracts are often sharp, smart, candid and penetrating. Who knew the US government had so many talented diplomats?
—Andrew Sullivan, on Wikileaks cables
4 tags
Pawlenty's Sex Offender Problem
From George H. W. Bush’s presidential campaign featuring the infamous “Willie Horton” ad, to John Stephens’ just-ended New Hampshire gubernatorial race featuring “John Lynch’s sex offender release bill,” Republicans have shown a particular relish for using the threat of violent sex crimes to paint their opponent as soft on crime.
It’s history as...
November 2010
72 posts
4 tags
Pindell on NH Primary Dynamics
James Pindell summarizes the dynamics of the upcoming 2012 New Hampshire primary by posing three simple questions.
1. Will she or wont she?
“She” being Sarah Palin, of course. Her answer will determine who else tosses their hat into the ring. If she does take the plunge, the other candidates will all be forced to position themselves against her.
2. What kind of Mitt Romney will...
4 tags
Quote of the Day: A Different Set of Circumstances
“A candidate like [Sarah] Palin who polls well nationally might find a different set of circumstances here in New Hampshire. This is a state where it’s not about television or books, it’s about hand-to-hand campaigning.”
“In New Hampshire, the state sport is politics. … If she wants to be in this race, she’s got to be here.”
—Neil Levesque, executive director of the New...
1 tag
New Hampshire Presidential Primary Primer
With campaigning for the New Hampshire presidential primary about to heat up, now’s the time to brush up on the history of the First-in-the-Nation primary.
“First Stop: The New Hampshire Primary” is a special issue of Historical New Hampshire, originally published by the New Hampshire Historical Society in 2003.
An audio version of each article, narrated by John Walters, is...
2 tags
Quote of the Day: Learning Experience (or Lack...
The Great Depression ended the last comparable Gilded Age, of the 1920s, and brought about major reforms in American government and business. Not so the Great Recession. Last week, as the Fed’s new growth projections downsized hope for significant decline in the unemployment rate, the Commerce Department reported that corporate profits hit a record high. Those profits aren’t trickling down into...
2 tags
Quote of the Day: Beyond Redemption
“If Dick Lugar, having served five terms in the U.S. Senate and being the most respected person in the Senate and the leading authority on foreign policy, is seriously challenged by anybody in the Republican Party, we have gone so far overboard that we are beyond redemption.”
—Former Republican Sen. John C. Danforth
5 tags
CBO: Stimulus Raising Output, Lowering...
As required by law, the Congressional Budget Office has released its report estimating the impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on employment and economic output for the third quarter of 2010.
CBO estimates that ARRA’s policies had the following effects in the third quarter of calendar year 2010:
They raised real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) by between 1.4...
6 tags
Earmark Ban Would Eliminate $156 Million For NH
The earmark ban supported by New Hampshire’s newly elected congressional members would eliminate $156 million in federal funding for New Hampshire projects. The funding is included in 69 earmarks contained in current drafts of congressional spending bills.
New Hampshire projects benefiting from the earmarks include the Dover Teen Center and its programs for at-risk teenagers ($240,000),...
2 tags
Lynch's Relatively Modest $2 Million Campaign
The National Institute on Money in State Politics has compiled fundraising numbers for the nation’s winning gubernatorial candidates, documenting over $453.7 million raised collectively for their campaigns.
When compared to the rest of the nation, Gov. John Lynch’s campaign fundraising was relatively modest. Lynch raised nearly $2 million this cycle, ranking 38th among the 49...
1 tag
Happy Thanksgiving!
3 tags
Quote of the Day: What It Wasn't
“This was not an affirmation of Republican principles.”
—Republican Rep.-Elect Charlie Bass, on 2010 midterm elections
2 tags
When Republican Women Attack
“I sat next to her once. Thought she was beautiful. And I think she’s very happy in Alaska, and I hope she’ll stay there.”
—Barbara Bush
“I think the majority of Americans don’t want to put up with the blue bloods — and I say it with all due respect because I love the Bushes — but the blue bloods who want to pick and choose their winners instead of...
2 tags
Quote of the Day: TSA, Civil Liberties & Falling...
But what about our civil liberties? Maybe you think that even if TSA’s procedures are slightly useful, they aren’t useful enough to justify all the intrusion. Instead, we should just accept the risk of an occasional plane falling out of the sky. Think again: if a plane comes down, you can just kiss your civil liberties goodbye. Today’s TSA procedures will seem positively genial...
2 tags
Someone's in the Kitchen with Dinah
Another chef in Congress, Rep. Paul Hodes (D-N.H.), is thrilled that his dining room table is finally long enough for the entire family — some 20 Hodes relatives — to gather around.
He’ll be in the kitchen for at least part of the day, making his special stuffing with fresh cranberries and an original recipe for whisky gravy.
1 tag
Should NH Dems Blame Massachusetts?
Dr. Kenneth Cosgrove, associate professor of government and director of graduate studies at Boston’s Suffolk University, believes the resurgence of the Republican party in Massachusetts contributed to the midterm election losses suffered by New Hampshire Democrats.
Cosgrove suggests that the level of involvement that Democratic operatives poured into Massachusetts meant that they could not...
2 tags
Hodes' Hotdog Ad: Bad, Really Bad
Hotline On Call adds insult to injury by naming Paul Hodes’ “Hotdog” ad one of the 10 worst campaign ads of 2010. No argument here.
New Hampshire Rep. Paul Hodes’ (D) Senate campaign never gained much ground on Sen.-elect Kelly Ayotte (R) and this ad didn’t help. Hodes’ image wasn’t well defined throughout the campaign and this ad, featuring a hot dog...
1 tag
An Isarithmic History of the Two-Party Vote
David B. Sparks creates a shifting contour map of the U.S. presidential election returns since 1920.
The result is the story of 20th century presidential politics on a grand scale, condensed into a little over a minute of data visualization.
This animated interpretation accentuates certain phenomena: the breadth and duration of support for Roosevelt, the shift from a Democratic to a Republican...
1 tag
Paul Hodes: Vignette
The Hill:
Rep. Paul Hodes (D-N.H.) broke House chamber rules during the first floor vote last week, but it’s safe to say he will avoid punishment.
Hodes, who lost his bid for the Senate, used his iPhone camera to snap a shot of outgoing Rep. Steve Kagen (D-Wis.) posing in the center aisle with the Speaker’s rostrum in the background.
A House chamber security member rushed up to the pair after...
1 tag
Gregg Versus Gregg: On CBO Budget Estimates
I’ve pointed out Sen. Judd Gregg’s wild inconsistencies before. On budget reconciliation, for example, he was for it, before he was against it, before he was for it.
Well, he’s at it again. Here’s what Gregg had to say yesterday on Fox News regarding health care reform budget estimates from the Congressional Budget Office:
Asked about how he would save money on Fox News...
2 tags
Judd Gregg to Head Business Roundtable?
Outgoing New Hampshire Senator Judd Gregg is a top candidate to head the Business Roundtable, a position expected to pay more than $5 million a year.
The trade association is a politically conservative association of CEOs of large U.S. companies including Bank of America, Boeing, Caterpillar and Dow Chemical. The Roundtable has been President Obama’s closest ally in the business community...
5 tags
Andy Smith on the New Hampshire Electorate
In a Roll Call profile of Frank Guinta, Charlie Bass, and the New Hampshire electorate, UNH Survey Center director Andy Smith corrects the conventional wisdom that independents are the key to winning elections in the Granite State.
“It’s an absolute myth. But it’s such a good myth, it keeps getting repeated,” he said. Smith’s research shows that most unaffiliated voters are really partisans;...
6 tags
NH Presidential Primary: Mitt Romney's Firestop?
Ed Kilgore takes a detailed look at how the 2012 Republican primary election might play out. He points out there will be high expectations for Mitt Romney in the Granite State. It’s next door to his home state and he currently leads in the early polling. But Romney will face significant challenges, particularly if conservatives unite behind someone else.
Romney was beaten in New Hampshire...
3 tags
Bonus Quote of the Day: Palin's Formula for...
What might bring down other politicians only seems to make [Sarah Palin] stronger: the malapropisms and gaffes, the cut-and-run half-term governorship, family scandals, shameless lying and rapacious self-merchandising. In an angry time when America’s experts and elites all seem to have failed, her amateurism and liabilities are badges of honor. She has turned fallibility into a formula for...
2 tags
Quote of the Day: I Hope American Public is...
“If anything, taxes for the lower and middle class and maybe even the upper middle class should even probably be cut further. … But I think that people at the high end — people like myself — should be paying a lot more in taxes. We have it better than we’ve ever had it.”
“The rich are always going to say that, you know, just give us more money and...
1 tag
Judd Gregg Opposes DREAM Act
This week, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid promised to hold a vote during the lame-duck session on the immigration bill known as the DREAM Act.
The legislation provides a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants who complete college or at least two years of military service. It applies only to immigrants who arrived in the U.S. illegally as children under the supervision of their parents.
...
2 tags
Gordon Ellis and Epistemic Closure
The second-most striking aspect of Epsom school board chairman Gordon Ellis subjecting elementary school children to an ill-informed, ideological rant was his utter obliviousness to how others would react.
“I had no clue it would come off so badly. I had no intention for it to come off so badly or cause the ruckus it did.”
Earlier this year, Julian Sanchez wrote of how conservative...
1 tag
NH Tea Party Targets Planning and Zoning
Writing in Mother Jones, Stephanie Mencimer describes the latest target for Tea Party attacks: local zoning commissions.
First, they took on the political establishment in Congress. Now, tea partiers have trained their sights on a new and insidious target: local planning and zoning commissions, which activists believe are carrying out a global conspiracy to trample American liberties and force...
3 tags
Tweet of the Day: Frum Responds to Palin
3 tags
Quote of the Day: Significant Challenges
“Even though we are climbing out of this recession, we will face significant challenges. It will force us to make tough choices, deferring or forgoing worthwhile programs and services.”
—New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch
3 tags
Tax Cut Keynesianism and Other Fallacies
Jonathan Chait points out the intellectual dishonesty of Republicans who justify extending the Bush-era tax cuts for the wealthy by claiming it’s especially harmful to raise taxes during a recession. Call it, tax cut Keynesianism.
Basically, if you believe that recessions are bad times to raise taxes, then you should also believe they’re a bad time to cut spending. Alternatively, if...
1 tag
Where is Judd Gregg's Next Gig?
After 18 years in the U.S. Senate, Sen. Judd Gregg will be unemployed in January. So what’s next for the former Governor and almost Cabinet Secretary? Timothy Carney hazards a guess.
Can Mitt Romney, whom Gregg endorsed in 2008, pay Gregg enough to be a full-time surrogate? If Gregg went home and spent all his time stumping for Mitt, it could make a difference. Probably, Gregg would have...
2 tags
Can Dems Retake U.S. House in 2012?
Could Democrats take back control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2012? Mark Gersh, Washington Director of the National Committee for an Effective Congress, says it’s possible.
Here’s why: this year, 25 races were decided by 3 percent or less in the major-party vote share (13 Democratic and 12 Republican) pending recounts and final vote totals. Another 30 were decided by...
2 tags
Quote of the Day: Palin's Tweets
“I just tweet; that’s just the way I roll.”
—Sarah Palin
3 tags
Guinta's Dilemma: Repeal Healthcare or Reduce Debt
A report from the non-partisan U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) finds the the cost control provisions in the Affordable Care Act produce a “notable improvement in the long-term outlook” for debt reduction if the law is implemented fully.
The federal government faces long-term fiscal pressures … driven on the spending side largely by rising health care costs and an...
4 tags
Sarah Palin Unmoved by Ovide's Deer Carcass
Robert Draper’s New York Times Magazine piece on Sarah Palin’s kitchen cabinet adds some voyeuristic detail around Palin’s endorsement of Kelly Ayotte. That Ovide Lamontagne is quite the charmer, isn’t he?
In the New Hampshire Senate race, Palin threw her support behind the establishment candidate Kelly Ayotte rather than a Tea Party favorite who tried to endear himself...
1 tag
Are All Republicans Outrageous Hypocrites?
Exhibit A. Tea Party Queen Rep. Michele Bachmann says earmarks are “little more than a political favor factory at taxpayer expense.” EXCEPT for transportation projects in her district.
“Advocating for transportation projects for one’s district in my mind does not equate to an earmark.”
“I don’t believe that building roads and bridges and interchanges...
2 tags
Iowa & New Hampshire: One or the Other?
Last week Steve Kornacki speculated Sarah Palin could bypass the New Hampshire presidential primary in her pursuit of the GOP presidential nomination, what with the Granite State being less hospitable to religious conservatives than Iowa and South Carolina.
Today, we get a similar analysis from another angle. Writing from the Land of 10,000 Lakes, Patrick Caldwell accesses hometown favorite Gov....
3 tags
Dueling Pundits on NH House Speaker Contest
“Seems good money is on Gene Chandler reclaiming NH House Speakership.”
—Dan Tuohy, Union Leader
“Mont Vernon’s Bill O’Brien has a sizable advantage over Bartlett’s Gene Chandler, not just in votes, but also in enthusiasm.
“The Mont Vernon State Representative appeared to seal the deal on becoming the next House Speaker.”
—James Pindell, WMUR...
3 tags
Wanted: Honesty, Communication & Compassion
Survey data collected from two decades of New Hampshire Presidential Primary political rallies finds the key characteristics voters consider when choosing a presidential candidate are honesty, talking about the nation’s problems and being compassionate about people’s needs.
Researchers analyzed campaign communications and surveyed voters to determine the qualities voters value most in a...
2 tags
Quote of the Day: Pretend Information
Too often, conservatives dupe themselves. They wrap themselves in closed information systems based upon pretend information. In this closed information system, banks can collapse without injuring the rest of the economy, tax cuts always pay for themselves and Congressional earmarks cause the federal budget deficit. … As corporate profits soar, the closed information system insists that the...
4 tags
Rep.-Elect Frank Guinta (R-Tea Party)
Congressman-elect Frank Guinta will be hanging out with Tea Partiers Sen. Jim DeMint, Rep. Michelle Bachman and Rep. Mike Pence tomorrow. He’s joining the three as featured speaker at the Americans for Prosperity “November Speaks” rally in Washington.
The rally is an attempt to block Democrats’ policy priorities in the upcoming lame-duck session, including a childhood...
1 tag
Rhetoric Meets Reality for Guinta
The rhetoric:
“[Y]ou’ve got to make tough decisions everywhere,” said Guinta. “Being a member of congress today shouldn’t be about bringing money back to your community or your state or your district. … That means all of this spending has to stop.”
The reality:
Last year, Congress allocated $5.1 billion for the Low Income Housing Energy Assistance...
3 tags
Quote of the Day: Meteor Hit
“There was such a violent turmoil at the bottom of the ballot. … It was like a meteor hit. A whole generation of Democratic legislators was just gone when it was over.’’
—Danta Scala, on changes to New Hampshire legislature following 2010 midterm elections.
3 tags
Quote of the Day: Lynch & Republicans on Same Page
“[Gov. John Lynch] and Republicans are on the same page in a number of areas. … The pledge, no income or sales tax, everybody wants to cut spending. I think now Republicans can step up to the plate and take the pressure off Lynch. … It’s not all just on Lynch and the Democrats. The Republicans now have a stake in solving the budget problem that they haven’t had before.”
—Dean...
3 tags
Sarah Palin to Skip NH Primary?
Steve Kornacki finds it a little suspicious that Sarah Palin’s upcoming book tour will bypass New Hampshire — especially since she’ll hit Iowa and South Carolina — and wonders if it telegraphs her strategy for a presidential run.
[T]he Granite State is not typically hospitable to the overtly religious brand of cultural conservatism that Palin embodies.
Polls have...
4 tags
Explaining the Midterms: View from the Ivory Tower
Boston Review hosts a must-read article from political scientists Eric McGhee, Brendan Nyhan, and John Sides on why Democrats did so poorly in the midterm congressional elections.
On the fundamentals:
First, Democrats were likely to lose seats simply because they held so many … . Second, voters tend to reward the president’s party when the economy is good and punish it when the economy is...
4 tags
Correction of the Year
Larry Sabato and and Alan Abramowitz:
CORRECTION: Due to sloppy research by our interns, the authors would like to clarify a couple of points. It turns out that all news reports cited above were not published in the last ten days, but right after the 1994 Republican midterm landslide. Every time “Barack Obama” appears in print, you should substitute “Bill Clinton”. The acronym “OTB” actually...
2 tags
NH Deemed Critical to Obama's Reelection
Samuel J. Best and Brian S. Krueger identify New Hampshire as one of nine swing states that will be critical to winning the Presidency in 2012. They point to Obama’s performance among independents as the key determinant of success.
Nearly half of New Hampshire voters identify themselves as political independents, amongst the highest ratios of any state in the nation. Winning their votes is...
2 tags
Explaining the Midterms: An Aligning Election
Nate Silver takes a look at the midterm voting data to determine if the results might signify the beginnings of a realignment in which the Republican party becomes dominant. Instead, he finds the 2010 races tended to reinforce existing electoral patterns, “to an almost uncanny degree.”
Rather than a realigning election, then, 2010 served as more of an aligning election: Congressional...
