As polls, pundits and political organizations keep trying to influence you and I [sic] about who to vote for, we MUST ask ourselves, “Why in the world would we do the same thing we have done for the past 50 years, and expect a better outcome in DC?” DON’T LET THEM STEAL YOUR VOTE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND THE QUALIFICATIONS AND POLITICAL STRIPES OF THOSE RUNNING WILL BECOME VERY CLEAR
Bob Giuda, the gift that keeps giving. The man is definitely prone to the occasional paranoid rant. ”They” are coming to steal your vote. Quick, better hide it under the bed.
Public opinion surveys provide a scientific measure of voter attitudes and preferences at a given point in time. Why voters express the preference they do and what this means for the future is much harder to quantify.
Following the latest New Hampshire survey data from Public Policy Polling, there’s been no shortage of commentary attempting to answer those questions. Greg Sargent pointed to the Sarah Palin endorsement as the cause of Kelly Ayotte’s tumbling poll numbers. Marc Ambinder was skeptical. Partisan observers were predictably supportive or dismissive.
Here’s one thing I think we can say that is clear and unambiguous. In three months, support for the Democratic party and its candidates among New Hampshire voters has grown significantly.
Here’s the change in net approval/support between this week’s PPP survey and the previous PPP survey on April 20:
President Obama: +3% President Obama’s Health Care Plan: +8% Sen. Jeanne Shaheen: +7 Rep. Paul Hodes: +2
Sen. Judd Gregg: -2 Kelly Ayotte: -13 Bill Binnie: -8 Jim Bender: -1 Ovide Lamontagne: -1
The WMUR Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center shows similar movement. More on that one later.
Katrina Swett reported having over $1.1 million at the end of the second quarter. Now Politico reports she’s about to begin spending it.
[Swett’s campaign manager, Meagan Coffman] confirmed that the campaign had bought TV airtime on New Hampshire TV station WMUR beginning in late August, but declined to specify whether the ads would be negative.
The latest polling from Public Policy Polling contradicts the notion expressed by Christ Cilliza yesterday that Gov. John Lynch “could face a more serious race than people expect today.”
New Hampshire Governor John Lynch remains popular and maintains his lead against all of his potential Republican challengers.
Lynch’s approval ratings are climbing. In April New Hampshire voters approved of their Governor 44:42. This month voters approve of Lynch 52:36.
Lynch has a steady lead. The Governor is ahead of his most serious opponent, John Stephen; 52:34. Most New Hampshire voters don’t know the potential Republican contenders. John Stephen is the most popular and still 65% of voters have yet to form an opinion of the leading Republican candidate.
PPP surveyed 900 New Hampshire voters from July 23-25, 2010. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.26%.
Proposed Cut #3: I propose a freeze of federal employee pay for one year. Such a freeze will…save taxpayers $2 billion next year…
The Facts: Guinta’s proposal is a slap in the face for members of the armed forces. The sledge hammer approach harms civilian defense workers, federal law enforcement, border protection agents, and their missions.
President Obama has proposed increasing federal workers’ pay by 1.4 percent this year, less than recent increases. Rep. Steny Hoyer rightly calls the proposal a “cynical ploy to make federal employees a scapegoat for spending after congressional Republicans added trillions to the debt when they were in the majority.”
This is the third in a series of fact checking reports on 1st District Republican Congressional candidate Frank Guinta’s proposed federal spending cuts.
Chris Cillizza Downgrades NH Gov Race to "Lean Dem"
New Hampshire (Move from Safe Democratic to Lean Democratic): Gov. John Lynch (D) remains a clear favorite but the Granite State is shaping up to be a major Republican target this fall and if there is a wave the incumbent could face a more serious race than people expect today.
Proposed Cut #2: I support the ban against using so-called “stimulus funds” to pay for road signs announcing the American Recovery & Reinvestment Act and also support recouping our tax dollars from this frivolous program.
Fun Facts: The use of signs for stimulus projects was encouraged by the Federal Highway Administration to promote transparency and accountability—but not required. Of the $28 billion spent on road projects, the best estimate is that states have spent about $5 million on signs—less than 0.02% of overall project costs. White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs quipped, “I’m glad the Republicans have noticed…nearly 11,000 road projects that are underway this summer.”
This is the second in a series of fact checking reports on 1st District Republican Congressional candidate Frank Guinta’s proposed federal spending cuts.
2nd District Congressional candidate Ann McLean Kuster received contributions from more Act Blue donors than any other Congressional campaign in the country in the second quarter. 3,675 Act Blue donors contributed $43,046.58 to her campaign.
Kuster is the leading fundraiser for the 2nd District seat by a large margin, having raised $1,158,253 for the campaign. This more than doubles the contributions raised by her nearest competitor, Katrina Swett.
ActBlue is the nation’s largest source of funds for Democrats, enabling individuals and groups to raise money for the Democratic candidates and committees of their choice.
1st District Republican Congressional candidate Frank Guinta plans to announce a proposed federal spending cut each day until the primary election. He calls his list, Frank’s Fifty.
Proposed Cut #1: Defund and replace the highly unpopular Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare). I propose defunding the program and replacing it with reforms that make healthcare more accessible and affordable for all Americans and without raising taxes on working families and small businesses.
Estimated Savings: $900 billion – $1.2 trillion over ten years.
Facts: Guinta’s claim that repealing healthcare reform will save $900 billion – $1.2 trillion over ten years includes the cost of the program without including the cost savings.
The independent, nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the legislation will produce a net reduction in federal deficits of $143 billion over the 2010-2019 period.
Guinta has not offered any details about how his plan makes healthcare “more accessible and affordable” without raising taxes. Call me skeptical.
PPP: Ayotte Gains on Binnie, Loses Ground to Hodes
Big news coming from Public Policy Polling. They were in New Hampshire polling this weekend and offer a sneak peek at the results:
The New Hampshire Senate numbers we’ll have coming out this week (general election Tuesday, primary Wednesday) are a great example of the double edged sword that is a Sarah Palin endorsement. In the short term Kelly Ayotte has opened a wide lead in the Republican primary. But the Palin endorsement could be hurting Ayotte’s chances of winning in the general election.
51% of New Hampshire voters overall say they’re less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Palin to just 26% who say a Palin endorsement would make them more inclined to be supportive. The disparity is even larger when it comes to moderate voters- 14% of them are positively swayed by a Palin nod while 65% say her support is more likely to turn them against one of her preferred candidates.
When we polled New Hampshire in April we found Ayotte’s favorability numbers with moderates on positive ground at 32/27, something very unusual for a Republican candidate. Now in the wake of the Palin endorsement that is no longer the case- 27% of moderates see Ayotte favorably while 46% see her unfavorably- a 24 point drop in her favorability spread over the last three months.
Ayotte’s embrace of Palin seemed to suggest she was more worried about the primary than the general election and that calculus may work out for her in the end but tomorrow’s numbers will show her match up with Paul Hodes the closest of any poll so far in 2010.
The U.S. House Tea Party Caucus was unveiled this week. 40 of the House’s most radical right-wingers have signed up. The usual suspects are all there including Michele Bachmann, who once called Obama anti-American; Joe “You Lie” Wilson; and BP apologist Joe Barton.
We know the GOP candidates in New Hampshire’s 1st District—Frank Guinta, Rich Ashooh and Sean Mahoney—are all big fans.
But we haven’t heard from Charlie Bass who, we can imagine, would like to coast through the primary without publicly embracing the tea party so he can then emerge as “Mr. Moderate.”
But take a look at who is contributing to his campaign:
Joe L. Barton (R-Texas) $7,000
Pete Sessions (R-Texas) $5,000
Jerry Moran (R-Kansas) $1,000
Lamar Smith (R-Texas) $1,000
Ralph Hall (R-Texas) $500
Five of the Tea Party Caucus members have given Bass money. Do they know something we don’t know?
Postscript: I’ve updated the list of Bass 2010 PAC contributions with data from the second quarter. “PAC Man” Bass bagged another $67,000 in PAC money.
When Sarah Palin said Kelly Ayotte fought Planned Parenthood “all the way to the Supreme Court and won,” she got it wrong. Wrong, as in the truth is Kelly Ayotte fought Planned Parenthood all the way to the Supreme Court and lost.
That’s not my opinion. That’s the legal opinion of the presiding judge who ruled New Hampshire had to reimburse Planned Parenthood for legal costs.
The state of New Hampshire must reimburse Planned Parenthood of New England for a lawsuit, in which the group challenged the state’s 2003 parental notification law, a federal judge has ruled.
In his ruling last week, DeClerico said PPNNE effectively won the suit and deserved to be reimbursed a “reasonable award of legal fees and costs.”
Now, Sarah Palin has never let the facts get in the way of a good story, but it still seems unlikely that she would have intentionally reversed the outcome when the truth can be confirmed so easily.
So this leads to some interesting questions for Kelly Ayotte. Do you believe you “won” the Supreme Court case? Did you or your staff discuss the case with Palin before the endorsement? Have you notified Palin of the inaccuracy in her statement?
Rep. Zach Wamp (R-03) suggested TN and other states may have to consider seceding from the union if the federal government does not change its ways regarding mandates.
"I hope that the American people will go to the ballot box in 2010 and 2012 so that states are not forced to consider separation from this government," said Wamp during an interview with Hotline OnCall.
The New Hampshire Republican Senate primary is beginning to look like a two-person race between Kelly Ayotte and Bill Binnie. And the fur is starting to fly.
July 15. Bill Binnie runs the first Republican “contrast ad” comparing his business experience to Ayotte’s time spent fighting.
New Hampshire has a choice. Kelly Ayotte, former attorney general, knows how to put people in jail. Bill Binnie, successful businessman, knows how to put people in jobs.
July 19. Sarah Palin endorses Ayotte and takes a shot at Binnie.
…Kelly is facing attacks from a self-funded millionaire running with an R next to his name who likes Obamacare and cap-and-tax.
July 22. Cornerstone Action, the advocacy arm of Cornerstone Policy Research, begins running statewide radio ads calling Binnie “shockingly liberal.”
…Bill Binnie said that he might have voted for the $700 billion dollar bank bailout… And he’s excited about New Hampshire’s new gay marriage law… He also opposes Arizona’s new common sense law that cracks down on illegal immigration… he supports key elements of President Obama’s takeover of our healthcare system… his ads make him seem like he’s a conservative, but he really is shockingly liberal.
The issue here is that thus far the four major candidates have all sounded largely indistinguishable from each other, a common problem in a primary where most of the negativity is directed at the other party. So, the only way for the campaigns to draw distinctions now is to argue that the similar positions of their competitors (especially the frontrunner) are wholly inauthentic.
James Pindell, publisher of NHPoliticalReport, on Kelly Ayotte’s campaign for the GOP Senate nomination and the impact of Sarah Palin’s endorsement:
Ayotte entered the race a year ago in a worse position than even Trey Grayson and Charlie Crist… Here she was the pick of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, hiring staff from the NRSC and being backed by outgoing Sen. Judd Gregg, who is not beloved among local conservatives.
But something funny happened along the way… Ayotte never became Grayson or Crist. The base was always skeptical, but the real conservative in the race — Ovide Lamontagne — has become less and less of an option for them due to lackluster fundraising. With Palin’s seal of approval, the base now has the permission to fully back Ayotte. In a primary where she will be largely matched up against a pro-choice, pro-gay-rights candidate, it is exactly where she wants to be.
Chris Cillizza on Sarah Palin's New Hampshire Problem
Sara Palin endorsements are all about Sara Palin. The candidate receiving the endorsement is merely a prop in Palin’s drama. Chris Cilliza recognizes the endorsement of New Hampshire GOP Senate candidate Kelly Ayotte for what it is and takes a look at Palin’s chances in the New Hampshire 2012 Presidential primary.
In conversations with a handful of top-level Republican strategists in New Hampshire, it became clear that Palin has three basic problems she must solve between now and 2012 if she wants to make run at victory in the Granite State.
Time spent: New Hampshire voters expect — nay, demand — to meet (and then meet again and again) the candidates running for president. Palin simply has spent almost no time in the state…
Ideological Misfit: Palin’s brand of in-your-face social conservatism might not be the best fit for the flinty fiscal conservatives who tend to carry the most influence in the state’s presidential primary.
Independents: New Hampshire has an open primary system, meaning that independents can choose to vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary for president… Palin has struggled mightily to court independent voters since the 2008 campaign; a recent Quinnipiac University national poll showed just 33 percent of independents viewed her favorably, while 50 percent saw her in an unfavorable light.
Will Palin even run? That’s a question that no one can answer with any degree of authority — maybe not even Palin herself. If she does, however, New Hampshire would seem to present the biggest hurdle to her chances at the nomination.
1) The “early states” theory. Palin wants to earn favors in early primary states: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina. In those states she is endorsing likely winners even when (as with Iowa’s Terry Brandstad) that likely winner tilts more to the middle than Palin’s current political identity.
2) The “go with the winner” theory. Palin is seeking to make herself look more powerful within the party by claiming credit for other people’s successes.
3) The “woo women” theory. Palin has endorsed women candidates against men she might have been expected to prefer: eg Carly Fiorina over Chuck DeVore in California. These endorsements enabled and justified Palin’s recent “Mama Grizzlies” ad. By positioning herself as a champion of women in politics, Palin distracts attention from one important weakness of any Palin candidacy: her unpopularity among women voters. It’s working too.
In today’s Foster’s Daily Democrat, Kelly Ayotte pens a guest column titled, Democrats’ ‘Culture Of Uncertainty.’ In it, Ayotte attacks Paul Hodes’ House record with a simplistic litany of right-wing talking points. And like her new BFF Sarah Palin, she never lets the facts get in the way of a good story. Let’s put aside, for now, those policy proposals that are unwise and just take a look at a few of those assertions that are demonstrably and incontrovertibly untrue.
Democrats like Paul Hodes pushed a federal takeover of health care, paid for with more deficit spending and higher taxes.
UNTRUE! On March 20, 2010, the independent, nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released its final cost estimate for the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act and the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010. “CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimate that enacting both pieces of legislation will produce a net reduction in federal deficits of $143 billion over the 2010-2019 period.”
That she [Sarah Palin] is leaving a major footprint on the 2010 midterm elections is not disputed, but less clear is whether the endorsements are rooted in an effort to amplify her image or to create a political strategy for the future.
The Republican candidates for Congress in New Hampshire’s 1st District have eagerly embraced the House’s new Tea Party Caucus, as veteran Republican lawmakers warily weigh the risks.
Yesterday, the U.S. House of Representatives Administration Committee approved a request by Rep. Michele Bachmann to form the Tea Party Caucus.
Tea party enthusiast Bachmann claims the caucus “would do nothing more than promote the timeless principles of our founding, principles that all Members of Congress have sworn to uphold.” Others aren’t so sure.
By creating the caucus, Bachmann is forcing House members to choose whether or not to officially join the movement. It’s a decision that Politico says is causing heartburn for lawmakers.
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin added to her list of endorsements in important presidential states by lending her support to New Hampshire Republican Senatorial candidate Kelly Ayotte today.
Having previously endorsed Terry Branstad in Iowa and Nikki Haley in South Carolina, can an endorsement for Nevada’s Sharron Angle be far behind? The four states open the 2012 presidential selection process.
As usual, Palin made her announcement on Facebook. As usual, Palin didn’t let the facts get in the way of a good story.
Chris Cillizza, writing in the The Fix, reviews the second quarter fundraising numbers and identifies the winners and losers. One of the five losers is New Hampshire’s own Ovide Lamontagne, Republican U.S. Senate candidate:
Ovide LaMontagne: LaMontagne, who is seeking the Republican Senate nomination in New Hampshire, raised just over $100,000 over the past three months — falling badly behind former state attorney general Kelly Ayotte and two self-funding candidates. LaMontagne was never going to be the money leader in the Sept. 14 primary but it’s not now clear whether he will have enough cash to make his case to the conservative wing of the party that should be his base.
538 Reclassifies NH Senate Race to "Likely Republican"
Nate Silver has updated his Senate forecast and reclassified the New Hampshire Senate race from Lean Republican to Likely Republican.
The individual New Hampshire projections give Kelly Ayotte a 65% chance of winning the Republican nomination, with an 85% of then winning the general election if she is nominated. Bill Binnie is given a 35% chance of winning the Republican nomination and a 75% chance in the general election. The model gives Ovide Lamontagne only a 3% chance of becoming the nominee, and then makes Paul Hodes the slight favorite in a match-up with Lamontagne.
Nationally, the model shows a slight improvement for Republicans.
Our latest Senate simulation has the chamber convening in 2011 with an average of 53.5 Democrats (counting Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders), 46.0 Republicans, and 0.5 Charlie Crists. This is an improvement for Republicans from our last forecast three weeks ago, which had 55.2 Democrats, 44.2 Republicans, and 0.6 Crists. The changes, however, predominantly reflect several methodological improvements we have made rather than any particular national momentum, although the dynamics of some individual contests are certainly evolving.
The Rockingham County Republican Committee held their annual picnic yesterday and hosted a straw poll for upcoming state and federal elections.
The vote for the GOP primary received the most attention, even though candidates expressed dismay and the results offered little other than bragging rights for the winners.
Receiving less attention was the 2012 Presidential preference poll. Mitt Romney confirmed his strength with the party faithful by winning 37% of the vote. Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin trailed with 10% each.
In 2001, the Legislature considered barring New Hampshire from recognizing same-sex marriages performed elsewhere. Guinta opposed the legislation. Spokesman Sean Thomas said in 2001, gay marriage was limited to Vermont and Guinta never thought it would spread. “He took the libertarian position: We don’t need to get involved in this,” Thomas said. With the federal Defense of Marriage Act already law, Thomas said Guinta thought state legislation was unnecessary. Thomas said Guinta supports DOMA.
Last week, the Real Clear Politics blog reported Frank Guinta signed the U.S. Conference of Mayors Climate Protection Agreement. The agreement endorsed the Kyoto protocol emissions targets and a national emission trading system.
The Nashua Telegraph quotes Guinta spokesman Sean Thomas dismissing the report by claiming the agreement was “probably” signed by his predecessor.
As for the Conference of Mayors, [Guinta spokesman Sean] Thomas said the group probably got support from predecessor Mayor Robert Baines, a Democrat, and substitute Guinta’s name after the fact.
One of the first acts Guinta made as mayor was to rescind the city’s membership in the U.S. Mayors Group as part of a budget-cutting initiative, Thomas added.
Here’s a contemporaneous report of the signing from the June 14, 2007 issue of The Hippo:
In seven cities and towns in New Hampshire, community leaders signed the U.S. Mayors’ Climate Protection Agreement during an energy summit hosted by the Sierra Club last week in Manchester. Joining Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta in that commitment were mayors Bernard Streeter of Nashua, Michael Blastos of Keene, John Larochelle of Rochester, Steve Marchand of Portsmouth, Hanover Town Manager Julia Griffin and Dona Layton of Dover.
According to the report, Guinta did sign the Climate Protection Agreement and he signed it in June, 2007—almost a year and an half after he took office.
Ezra Klein points out what political scientist’s models have proven: election results are determined by the economy. In presidential elections, there is a direct correlation between election year income growth and the incumbent party’s vote share. Specifically, a one percent increase in income equals a two percent increase in vote share, according to political scientist Larry Bartels.
Congressional elections are a bit more difficult because they’re more local, but they end up being predictable, too. Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California at San Diego, has a model that uses the number of seats the majority party holds, the approval rating of the president and the change in real disposable income, and predicts about 70 percent of the change from one election to the next.
On some level, Democrats understand that if people’s incomes had gone up over the last year, their agenda would be popular enough, but that in the presence of persistent joblessness, they’re going to lose the election. The only thing to do in the meantime is try and pass legislation that’ll make the country better off. That’s what they’ve done, or at least what they think they’ve done.
Today, comes evidence from the right wing of the damage this inflicted on Guinta’s campaign. The front page of RedState features a post from David Poff titled, NH-1: Guinta Has *Got* To Go.
In the case of Guinta, principles seem to vary depending on whether he’s talking as a Mayor or as a Candidate for the US House pandering for a couple votes… It’s what RCP goes ON to say about Guinta’s policy positions that set off all my Rino alarms, and convince me he can not be trusted to stand by the principles we Conservatives are expecting our candidates to espouse when we send them to Washington to set about cleaning up the mess Obama and his buddies have made of our Country.
Under the Agreement, participating cities commit to take following three actions:
Strive to meet or beat the Kyoto Protocol targets in their own communities, through actions ranging from anti-sprawl land-use policies to urban forest restoration projects to public information campaigns;
Urge their state governments, and the federal government, to enact policies and programs to meet or beat the greenhouse gas emission reduction target suggested for the United States in the Kyoto Protocol — 7% reduction from 1990 levels by 2012; and
Urge the U.S. Congress to pass the bipartisan greenhouse gas reduction legislation, which would establish a national emission trading system
June, 2010: “Frank Guinta opposes the “cap-and-trade” scheme that will destroy jobs and raise prices for gas, electricity and other sources of energy.”
If adopted, cap-and-trade will raise the cost of gasoline, electricity and other energy sources, further burdening the average American family which will see not only energy costs skyrocket, but also the costs of nearly every other manufactured or produced item. Small business owners will find it difficult to pay their bills and will have to decide between laying off employees and even closing their stores.
Kevin Landrigan reports 2nd Congressional District candidate Ann McLane Kuster has been endorsed by the Professional Fire Fighters of New Hampshire, “one of the state’s most important and politically active unions.”
President David Lang said Kuster’s “been just great” on safety, public pension and other key issues for the union and they solidified a kinship during the 2004 presidential primary when both were staunch supporters of NH primary winner and Democratic nominee John Kerry.
“She is from Main Street, she understands the issues that are vitally important to working people,” Lang said.
Don’t be misled that this organization is a “only Democrats may apply” organization. In 2002, they played a big role in the blowout gubernatorial victory for Republican Craig Benson.
“The bond has been there for a well with Annie so we feel great about this,” Lang added.
Kuster is in a tough Democratic primary battle with the 2002 nominee, Katrina Swett. Swett has previously been endorsed by the local American Postal Workers Union and State Employee’s Association of New Hampshire.
Former Portsmouth mayor Steve Marchand on Republican gubernatorial candidate John Stephen’s “First in the Nation” plan:
"It was disturbing to me that his plan would result in dramatic decreases in aid to local government, which means dramatic increases to local property taxes — the highest we have ever seen as a state… To make a statement like this without really any specifics as to how to do it — as somebody who knows the numbers, it almost certainly means dramatic increases in local property taxes."
Tom Holbrook, owner of Portsmouth’s RiverRun bookstore, receives a well deserved “Profile in Courage” in today’s Christian Science Monitor. In eight short years, this friendly neighborhood bookstore has become a Portsmouth institution and local treasure.
In addition to a discerning selection of new books with an emphasis on fiction, history, poetry, and mystery, RiverRun hosts over 100 events each year. It has become a required stop for aspiring Democratic Presidential candidates during that madness known as the New Hampshire primary.
Q. What makes it worthwhile coming to work in the morning? A. I like to play with books. I like to take books out of their boxes, to put them someplace where people will pick them up. I like to watch people as they pick them up. I like to buy books that I think you’re going to like and put them where I think you will see them. It’s very, very tactile and for me, my personality, if I could do that without any ever coming into the store, I would.
Q. RiverRun has become known for its author talks. What was your best author talk? A. We hosted Barack Obama’s first New Hampshire appearance. And that was insane.
You know you’ve got a tough re-election fight when you’re even getting bad publicity in the obituary pages.
The Las Vegas Review Journal flagged this death notice: “We believe that Mom would say she was mortified to have taken a large role in the election of Harry Reid to U.S. Congress. Let the record show Charlotte was displeased with his work. Please, in lieu of flowers, vote for another more worthy candidate.”
A new Rasmussen Reports poll finds the race for Judd Gregg’s U.S. Senate seat is “essentially unchanged” from a month ago. In the telephone survey of 500 likely voters, Republican Kelly Ayotte leads Democratic Congressman Paul Hodes by a 49% to 37% margin. Businessman Bill Binnie leads Hodes by a similar margin, 49% to 38%.
In match-ups with the longer shot GOP candidates, Hodes trails Ovide Lamontage by a 43% to 40% margin, and trails Jim Bender 43% to 39%. In all four of the matchups, 13% to 18% of the respondents are undecided or prefer another candidate.
As the campaign heated up, highlighted by dueling negative ads from Hodes and Ayotte, all the major candidates saw their favorability ratings decline.
Ayotte’s net favorability declined three points from 21%/8% (Very Favorable/Very Unfavorable) to 20%/10%; Binnie’s fell six points from 18%/11% to 16%/15%; and Hodes’ net favorability ratings dropped nine points from 25%/31% to 20%/35%.
Political scientists have measured a Republican house effect in surveys from Rasmussen Reports. That is, systematic differences in the the way that the surveys tend to lean toward Republican candidates. Nate Silver has calculated a 5.5 point Republican-leaning Rasmussen house effect in head-to-head Senate races.
This statewide telephone survey of 500 likely voters was conducted on July 12, 2010. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
New Hampshire Public Radio’s Laura Knoy sits down with three of the state’s respected political observers for a lively discussion about New Hampshire’s upcoming primary elections for the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives.
Guests include Josh Rogers, NHPR political reporter; Kevin Landrigan, State House Reporter for the Nashua Telegraph; and James Pindell, founder of
After opposing President Obama’s $200 stimulus program of public works spending and aid to states early this year as too expensive; and then rejecting a $33 billion bill this month extending unemployment benefits as too expensive; Gregg now proposes extending the Bush tax cuts that are set to expire at the end of this year.
Rejecting a $33 billion proposal, because of its alleged impact on the deficit, and then embracing an $820 billion one is a bit like a dieter passing on a plain baked potato
…and then gorging on four pints of Ben & Jerry’s Chocolate Fudge Brownie Ice Cream…
…Republicans voting against unemployment benefits and other anti-recession measures say they are doing so because they care about balancing the governments’ books. If you believed that claim before—and, admittedly, I’m not sure how you could have—then you certainly shouldn’t now.
The Coalition of New Hampshire Taxpayers, a coalition member of the New Hampshire Tea Party Coalition, held its 12th annual Taxpayer Reunion Picnic on Saturday. The results of the GOP straw poll identified the candidates receiving most support from tea party activists and highlighted the divide in the state GOP between the party establishment and tea party supporters.
Ovide Lamontage, who most observers believe is running a distant third in the Republican primary campaign for U.S. Senate, won the straw poll by overwhelming establishment favorites Kelly Ayotte and Bill Binnie.
In the race for Congress in New Hampshire’s 2nd Congressional District, Jennifer Horn topped Bob Guida. Former Congressman and odds-on favorite Charlie Bass brought up the rear.
The closest race was in the 1st Congressional District, where the lines between the GOP establishment and tea party activists are blurred. Former National Republican Congressional Committee Young Gun Frank Guinta edged out Rich Ashooh. Sean Mahoney was a distant third.
John Stephen won the straw poll for Governor and confirmed his front-running status by besting tea party favorite Jack Kimbell.
Results for top three finishers in each race are below the fold.