Quote of the Day: Turning Point for Democrats?
It’s too early to say for sure, but it’s possible that the Republican wave has subsided. —Charlie Cook
Bob Giuda's Latest Paranoid Rant
As polls, pundits and political organizations keep trying to influence you and I [sic] about who to vote for, we MUST ask ourselves, “Why in the world would we do the same thing we have done for the past 50 years, and expect a better outcome in DC?” DON’T LET THEM STEAL YOUR VOTE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND THE QUALIFICATIONS AND POLITICAL STRIPES OF THOSE RUNNING WILL BECOME...
David Frum, Ron Paul & Liberal NH Republicans
Much has been written analyzing the Public Policy Polling survey results of the New Hampshire Senate race. Much less has been written concerning the survey results for the 2012 GOP New Hampshire Primary. Republican bad boy David Frum steps in to fill the void and finds some interesting data. The horse race standings are pretty much as expected, with Mitt Romney leading the way: 31% Mitt Romney...
Quote of the Day: Binnie's Big Mouth
His mouth must be big. Binnie is spending a fortune on TV advertising, a strategy that has pulled him near or in the lead, according to recent polling. He gets more air time than the Jonas Brothers. —Ray Duckler, Concord Monitor columnist on Bill Binnie’s comment, “I’m putting my money where my mouth is.”
PPP Poll Postscript
Public opinion surveys provide a scientific measure of voter attitudes and preferences at a given point in time. Why voters express the preference they do and what this means for the future is much harder to quantify. Following the latest New Hampshire survey data from Public Policy Polling, there’s been no shortage of commentary attempting to answer those questions. Greg Sargent pointed to...
Swett Campaign Buys Airtime on WMUR
Katrina Swett reported having over $1.1 million at the end of the second quarter. Now Politico reports she’s about to begin spending it. [Swett’s campaign manager, Meagan Coffman] confirmed that the campaign had bought TV airtime on New Hampshire TV station WMUR beginning in late August, but declined to specify whether the ads would be negative.
Campaign Finance Reports, 2nd Quarter 2010 I’ve compiled the 2nd Quarter campaign financial reports for all of the the Senate and House candidates in this handy-dandy spreadsheet. By now, you’ve probably already read analysis of the overall winners and losers. Here are a few additional items that caught my attention: • New Hampshire tea party supporters may contribute energy and...
PPP: Governor Lynch Soars Towards Reelection
The latest polling from Public Policy Polling contradicts the notion expressed by Christ Cilliza yesterday that Gov. John Lynch “could face a more serious race than people expect today.” New Hampshire Governor John Lynch remains popular and maintains his lead against all of his potential Republican challengers. Lynch’s approval ratings are climbing. In April New Hampshire voters...
Fact-Checking Frank’s Fifty (#3 of 50)
Proposed Cut #3: I propose a freeze of federal employee pay for one year. Such a freeze will…save taxpayers $2 billion next year… The Facts: Guinta’s proposal is a slap in the face for members of the armed forces. The sledge hammer approach harms civilian defense workers, federal law enforcement, border protection agents, and their missions. President Obama has proposed...
Chris Cillizza Downgrades NH Gov Race to "Lean...
New Hampshire (Move from Safe Democratic to Lean Democratic): Gov. John Lynch (D) remains a clear favorite but the Granite State is shaping up to be a major Republican target this fall and if there is a wave the incumbent could face a more serious race than people expect today.
Quote of the Day: Ayotte May Pay
With over 50 percent of New Hampshire voters less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Palin, Ayotte may pay for the former Alaska Governor’s endorsement during the general election. —Public Policy Polling
Fact-Checking Frank’s Fifty (#2 of 50)
Proposed Cut #2: I support the ban against using so-called “stimulus funds” to pay for road signs announcing the American Recovery & Reinvestment Act and also support recouping our tax dollars from this frivolous program. Fun Facts: The use of signs for stimulus projects was encouraged by the Federal Highway Administration to promote transparency and accountability—but not...
Kuster Top Act Blue Fundraiser
2nd District Congressional candidate Ann McLean Kuster received contributions from more Act Blue donors than any other Congressional campaign in the country in the second quarter. 3,675 Act Blue donors contributed $43,046.58 to her campaign. Kuster is the leading fundraiser for the 2nd District seat by a large margin, having raised $1,158,253 for the campaign. This more than doubles the...
Fact-Checking Frank's Fifty (#1 of 50)
1st District Republican Congressional candidate Frank Guinta plans to announce a proposed federal spending cut each day until the primary election. He calls his list, Frank’s Fifty. Proposed Cut #1: Defund and replace the highly unpopular Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare). I propose defunding the program and replacing it with reforms that make healthcare more accessible...
PPP: Ayotte Gains on Binnie, Loses Ground to Hodes
Big news coming from Public Policy Polling. They were in New Hampshire polling this weekend and offer a sneak peek at the results: The New Hampshire Senate numbers we’ll have coming out this week (general election Tuesday, primary Wednesday) are a great example of the double edged sword that is a Sarah Palin endorsement. In the short term Kelly Ayotte has opened a wide lead in the...
Bonus Quote of the Day
This race features a cast of characters with intertwining lives worthy of a Tolstoy novel. —CNN Political Research Director Robert Yoon on the campaign for New Hampshire’s 2nd District Congressional seat.
Quote of the Day: Dumbass Tea Party
Will you tell those dumbasses at the Tea Party to stop asking questions about birth certificates while I’m on the camera? —Colorado GOP U.S. Senate candidate Ken Buck
Charlie Bass Bags Tea Party Caucus Money
The U.S. House Tea Party Caucus was unveiled this week. 40 of the House’s most radical right-wingers have signed up. The usual suspects are all there including Michele Bachmann, who once called Obama anti-American; Joe “You Lie” Wilson; and BP apologist Joe Barton. We know the GOP candidates in New Hampshire’s 1st District—Frank Guinta, Rich Ashooh and Sean Mahoney—are all big fans. ...
QOTD: Fighting Words
We are dealing with extremist, obstructionist, lying hypocrites who think you don’t have to pay for tax cuts for the wealthiest but are holding up help for the neediest. —U.S. Representative and Senate candidate Paul Hodes
Let's Be Clear: Ayotte Lost Supreme Court Case
When Sarah Palin said Kelly Ayotte fought Planned Parenthood “all the way to the Supreme Court and won,” she got it wrong. Wrong, as in the truth is Kelly Ayotte fought Planned Parenthood all the way to the Supreme Court and lost. That’s not my opinion. That’s the legal opinion of the presiding judge who ruled New Hampshire had to reimburse Planned Parenthood for legal...
Are You Kidding Me?
Hotline OnCall: Rep. Zach Wamp (R-03) suggested TN and other states may have to consider seceding from the union if the federal government does not change its ways regarding mandates. “I hope that the American people will go to the ballot box in 2010 and 2012 so that states are not forced to consider separation from this government,” said Wamp during an interview with Hotline...
Charlie Bass Fails Economics 101
Charlie Bass press release: We should repeal the stimulus, and use the balance to cut taxes on income temporarily, which will quickly produce real jobs. FAIL! As this chart from Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist, Mark Zandi indicates, tax cuts are a much, much less efficient method of growing the economy. Charlie’s plan doesn’t make the grade. Cross-posted to Blue...
Ayotte vs. Binnie Cage Match Begins
The New Hampshire Republican Senate primary is beginning to look like a two-person race between Kelly Ayotte and Bill Binnie. And the fur is starting to fly. July 15. Bill Binnie runs the first Republican “contrast ad” comparing his business experience to Ayotte’s time spent fighting. New Hampshire has a choice. Kelly Ayotte, former attorney general, knows how to put people in...
James Pindell on Kelly Ayotte
James Pindell, publisher of NHPoliticalReport, on Kelly Ayotte’s campaign for the GOP Senate nomination and the impact of Sarah Palin’s endorsement: Ayotte entered the race a year ago in a worse position than even Trey Grayson and Charlie Crist… Here she was the pick of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, hiring staff from the NRSC and being backed by outgoing Sen....
Chris Cillizza on Sarah Palin's New Hampshire...
Sara Palin endorsements are all about Sara Palin. The candidate receiving the endorsement is merely a prop in Palin’s drama. Chris Cilliza recognizes the endorsement of New Hampshire GOP Senate candidate Kelly Ayotte for what it is and takes a look at Palin’s chances in the New Hampshire 2012 Presidential primary. In conversations with a handful of top-level Republican strategists in...
Frum Deciphers Palin’s Ayotte Endorsement
Analysis from Republican bad boy David Frum: How then did Ayotte gain the Palin endorsement? Three theories: 1) The “early states” theory. Palin wants to earn favors in early primary states: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina. In those states she is endorsing likely winners even when (as with Iowa’s Terry Brandstad) that likely winner tilts more to the middle than Palin’s current political...
Fact Check: Kelly Ayotte Deletes the Truth
In today’s Foster’s Daily Democrat, Kelly Ayotte pens a guest column titled, Democrats’ ‘Culture Of Uncertainty.’ In it, Ayotte attacks Paul Hodes’ House record with a simplistic litany of right-wing talking points. And like her new BFF Sarah Palin, she never lets the facts get in the way of a good story. Let’s put aside, for now, those policy proposals that are...
QOTD: Sarah Palin & 2010 Midterm Elections
That she [Sarah Palin] is leaving a major footprint on the 2010 midterm elections is not disputed, but less clear is whether the endorsements are rooted in an effort to amplify her image or to create a political strategy for the future. —Jeff Zeleny, New York Times
Quiz of the Day: Name Recognition Challenge
Question: When you’re the least known candidate in a crowded primary field, how many times do you repeat your name in a 60-second radio ad? 4 8 12 Answer: C
GOP CD-1 Candidates Embrace Tea Party
The Republican candidates for Congress in New Hampshire’s 1st District have eagerly embraced the House’s new Tea Party Caucus, as veteran Republican lawmakers warily weigh the risks. Yesterday, the U.S. House of Representatives Administration Committee approved a request by Rep. Michele Bachmann to form the Tea Party Caucus. Tea party enthusiast Bachmann claims the caucus “would do...
Sarah Palin Scores a Hat Trick
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin added to her list of endorsements in important presidential states by lending her support to New Hampshire Republican Senatorial candidate Kelly Ayotte today. Having previously endorsed Terry Branstad in Iowa and Nikki Haley in South Carolina, can an endorsement for Nevada’s Sharron Angle be far behind? The four states open the 2012 presidential selection...
Chris Cillizza: Lamontagne Fundraising Loser
Chris Cillizza, writing in the The Fix, reviews the second quarter fundraising numbers and identifies the winners and losers. One of the five losers is New Hampshire’s own Ovide Lamontagne, Republican U.S. Senate candidate: Ovide LaMontagne: LaMontagne, who is seeking the Republican Senate nomination in New Hampshire, raised just over $100,000 over the past three months — falling...
538 Reclassifies NH Senate Race to "Likely...
Nate Silver has updated his Senate forecast and reclassified the New Hampshire Senate race from Lean Republican to Likely Republican. The individual New Hampshire projections give Kelly Ayotte a 65% chance of winning the Republican nomination, with an 85% of then winning the general election if she is nominated. Bill Binnie is given a 35% chance of winning the Republican nomination and a 75%...
Portsmouth, NH: "Epicenter of Wacky Running News"
Thus saith Runner’s World.
Mitt Romney Wins Early Straw Poll
The Rockingham County Republican Committee held their annual picnic yesterday and hosted a straw poll for upcoming state and federal elections. The vote for the GOP primary received the most attention, even though candidates expressed dismay and the results offered little other than bragging rights for the winners. Receiving less attention was the 2012 Presidential preference poll. Mitt Romney...
Guinta: That Was Then, This is Now (DOMA Edition)
Shira Schoenberg: In 2001, the Legislature considered barring New Hampshire from recognizing same-sex marriages performed elsewhere. Guinta opposed the legislation. Spokesman Sean Thomas said in 2001, gay marriage was limited to Vermont and Guinta never thought it would spread. “He took the libertarian position: We don’t need to get involved in this,” Thomas said. With the...
Fact Check: Did Guinta Sign Climate Agreement?
Last week, the Real Clear Politics blog reported Frank Guinta signed the U.S. Conference of Mayors Climate Protection Agreement. The agreement endorsed the Kyoto protocol emissions targets and a national emission trading system. The Nashua Telegraph quotes Guinta spokesman Sean Thomas dismissing the report by claiming the agreement was “probably” signed by his predecessor. As for...
It's the Economy
Ezra Klein points out what political scientist’s models have proven: election results are determined by the economy. In presidential elections, there is a direct correlation between election year income growth and the incumbent party’s vote share. Specifically, a one percent increase in income equals a two percent increase in vote share, according to political scientist Larry...
Tweet of the Day: Sign, Sign, Everywhere a Sign
primarywire: Bass campaign sends email decrying $5 million in stimulus funding spent on road signs. Offers free “Charlie Bass for Congress” signs.
Right-Wingers Abandoning Guinta?
Yesterday saw pieces from John DiStaso, Real Clear Politics, and Huffington Post, highlighting 1st Congressional District candidate Frank Guinta’s flip-flops on stimulus spending and cap-and-trade. Today, comes evidence from the right wing of the damage this inflicted on Guinta’s campaign. The front page of RedState features a post from David Poff titled, NH-1: Guinta Has *Got* To...
Frank Guinta: That Was Then, This is Now
June, 2007: Frank Guinta was signatory to U.S. Conference of Mayors Climate Protection Agreement. Under the Agreement, participating cities commit to take following three actions: Strive to meet or beat the Kyoto Protocol targets in their own communities, through actions ranging from anti-sprawl land-use policies to urban forest restoration projects to public information campaigns; Urge their...
Kuster Endorsed by Fire Fighters Union
Kevin Landrigan reports 2nd Congressional District candidate Ann McLane Kuster has been endorsed by the Professional Fire Fighters of New Hampshire, “one of the state’s most important and politically active unions.” President David Lang said Kuster’s “been just great” on safety, public pension and other key issues for the union and they solidified a kinship during the 2004...
QOTD: Former Portsmouth Mayor on Stephen’s Plan
Former Portsmouth mayor Steve Marchand on Republican gubernatorial candidate John Stephen’s “First in the Nation” plan: “It was disturbing to me that his plan would result in dramatic decreases in aid to local government, which means dramatic increases to local property taxes — the highest we have ever seen as a state… To make a statement like this without really any...
Profile in Courage: Portsmouth's Tom Holbrook
Tom Holbrook, owner of Portsmouth’s RiverRun bookstore, receives a well deserved “Profile in Courage” in today’s Christian Science Monitor. In eight short years, this friendly neighborhood bookstore has become a Portsmouth institution and local treasure. In addition to a discerning selection of new books with an emphasis on fiction, history, poetry, and mystery, RiverRun...
Zinger From Beyond the Grave
Taegan Goddard: You know you’ve got a tough re-election fight when you’re even getting bad publicity in the obituary pages. The Las Vegas Review Journal flagged this death notice: “We believe that Mom would say she was mortified to have taken a large role in the election of Harry Reid to U.S. Congress. Let the record show Charlotte was displeased with his work. Please, in lieu...
Rasmussen Poll: Ayotte and Binnie Maintain Leads
A new Rasmussen Reports poll finds the race for Judd Gregg’s U.S. Senate seat is “essentially unchanged” from a month ago. In the telephone survey of 500 likely voters, Republican Kelly Ayotte leads Democratic Congressman Paul Hodes by a 49% to 37% margin. Businessman Bill Binnie leads Hodes by a similar margin, 49% to 38%. In match-ups with the longer shot GOP candidates, Hodes...
NHPR’s The Exchange Previews NH Primary...
National League All Star Win Bad Omen for Dems?
Smart Politics analyzed 60 years of All-Star game history and U.S. House elections and has bad news for Democrats. …a National League victory has preceded each of the last nine election cycles in which Republicans have enjoyed double-digit gains in the House since 1950. But the All-Star game has not simply been a crystal ball for outcomes in the U.S. House; it has also been an even more...
Judd Gregg's Ice Cream Diet
Senator Judd Gregg describes himself as a “leading voice for fiscal discipline.” Jonathan Cohn is skeptical. After opposing President Obama’s $200 stimulus program of public works spending and aid to states early this year as too expensive; and then rejecting a $33 billion bill this month extending unemployment benefits as too expensive; Gregg now proposes extending the Bush tax cuts that...
GOP Straw Poll Confirms Tea Party Favorites
The Coalition of New Hampshire Taxpayers, a coalition member of the New Hampshire Tea Party Coalition, held its 12th annual Taxpayer Reunion Picnic on Saturday. The results of the GOP straw poll identified the candidates receiving most support from tea party activists and highlighted the divide in the state GOP between the party establishment and tea party supporters. Ovide Lamontage, who most...