October 2010
92 posts
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Bonus Quote of the Day: The Odds of Defying the...
[C]onstructing a simple polling average has provided a very reliable indication of which candidates will win the general election in Senate and gubernatorial races. Polling deficits in the high single digits, with 30 days to go in the campaign, have only rarely been overcome. Candidates who trail by double digits in the polling average have almost never defied the odds. Even relatively small...
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Quote of the Day: A $100,000 Bus
When people see a $100,000 bus they know it’s not a local grassroots effort.
—Rob Moller, campaign manager for Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, on Americans for Prosperity “November is Coming” bus tour.
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WMUR Granite State Poll: Bass 43%, Kuster 38%
Republican Charlie Bass and Democrat Ann Kuster are locked in a tight battle for the 2nd District Congressional seat in today’s WMUR Granite State Poll.
Bass leads Kuster among likely voters, 43% - 38%, well within the survey’s 6.1% margin of error. 16% of the respondents are undecided.
Kuster has seen a “dramatic” rise in favorability ratings since the July survey. 38%...
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WMUR Granite State Poll: Guinta 49%, Shea-Porter...
In the race for the 1st District Congressional seat, Republican Frank Guinta has opened up a 10-point lead over Democrat Rep. Carol Shea-Porter in today’s WMUR Granite State Poll.
Guinta leads Shea-Porter among likely voters 49% - 39% with 9% undecided. That’s a 15-point swing from July when Shea-Porter held a 5-point lead (44% - 39%) over Guinta.
Guinta’s net favorability...
September 2010
83 posts
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WMUR Granite State Poll: Ayotte 50%, Hodes 35%
Republican Kelly Ayotte has widened her lead over Democrat Rep. Paul Hodes in the campaign for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Sen Judd Gregg in the latest WMUR Granite State Poll.
Ayotte leads Hodes among likely voters 50% - 35% with 12% undecided. In July, Ayotte held a 8-point lead (45% - 37%) over Hodes. Ayotte’s net favorability rating is +12% (41% - 29%) compared to a -10% rating (29% -...
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Sabato: Campaign for NH Gov a "Real Horserace"
Larry Sabato:
We’re also not ready to change our current rating of Leans D in the New Hampshire Governor’s contest, but this one is definitely on the Crystal Ball’s “watch list”. What was once expected to be a reelection walk for three-term Gov. John Lynch (D) has turned into a real horserace. … Lynch leads, but narrowly, and both sides know this is a tight one—and will spend cash...
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Battles for NH State House & Senate Rated Tossups
Governing magazine has updated their ongoing projections in the November battle for control of the country’s state houses. The New Hampshire House and Senate remain in the tossup column.
The New Hampshire GOP should benefit from voter fatigue with unified Democratic control and a $600 million budget mess. But we’re not ready to shift either the narrowly divided Senate or the enormous state...
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Anti-Gay Marriage Group Wants To Keep Donors...
The National Organization for Marriage wants to run political ads but doesn’t want to play by the rules — so it’s challenging the campaign finance laws.
The National Organization for Marriage said in a federal lawsuit that it should not be forced to report its expenditures or comply with spending limits or bans that are required for political action committees. … It says the...
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Landrigan: "White Hot" Race in CD-02
2nd District Congressional candidates Republican Charlie Bass and Democrat Ann Kuster have launched dueling campaign ads. Kevin Landrigan provides the blow by blow account.
Republican congressional nominee Charles Bass’ first ad of the general election campaign seeks to paint Democrat Ann McLane Kuster’s call for a “new approach” in Washington as a prescription for even more liberal policies in...
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Politifact: American Crossroads Ad "Barely True"
The American Crossroads ad accusing Democratic Senatorial candidate Rep. Paul Hodes of voting for “$1.9 million to study ants in Africa” and “$39 million for office upgrades for politicians” is barely true. That’s the judgement of Politifact, the Pulitzer Prize winning, fact checking project of the St. Petersburg (FL) Times.
It’s true that Hodes voted for the...
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Charlie Cook Derides Public Polls as "Dime-Store...
Charlie Cook ridicules the notion that independent surveys are inherently better or more reliable than campaign polls.
Probably 90 percent of the public polling in statewide and district races is mediocre at best, and much of it is very close to worthless.
Some of these polls screen for likely voters — which is important in lower-turnout midterm elections — while others don’t...
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Frank Guinta's Mystery Bank Account — Put to Music
You’ve read the book, now watch the movie.
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Quote of the Day: Damn Right I Blocked It!
He said I blocked that. Damn right I blocked it, and I’m glad I did block it because that’s not New Hampshire. You don’t just cut everything across the board … it’s naive, it’s simplistic, it’s reckless and it will hurt people.
—Gov. John Lynch on Republican challenger John Stephen’s proposed Medicaid changes
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Why Can't Guinta Tell the Truth?
Republican 1st District Congressional candidate Frank Guinta is out with yet another blatant, black-is-white lie.
Guinta:
Just last week, Shea-Porter signed on to a letter with more than thirty of her far-left colleagues. The letter desperately begged Speaker Pelosi to not hold a vote on the tax cut extension.
Shea-Porter (in the letter to Speaker Pelosi):
As the Bush tax cuts are set to...
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Guinta Ensnared in Another Ethical Lapse?
In today’s one-hour candidate forum broadcast on New Hampshire Public Radio between 1st Congressional candidates Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter and Republican Frank Guinta, the topic was business and the economy, but the discussion quickly turned to the appropriate role of government.
When Guinta proclaimed that he went to college without any assistance from the government, Shea-Porter...
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Cognitive Dissonance Takes a Holiday
Yesterday’s GOP Cider Fest rally in Hampton featured conflicting messages about government’s role in supporting businesses. Was anybody listening?
After Republican Congressional candidate Frank Guinta attacked Democrats for a failed left-wing agenda of government intrusion in business, supporter Mike Hart credited his business success to the GI Bill and investment tax credits. Huh?
...
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ARG NH Gov Poll: Lynch 42%, Stephen 40%
Incumbent Democratic Gov. John Lynch is in a virtual tie with Republican John Stephen in his quest for an unprecedented fourth term as New Hampshire Governor. That according to a survey out today from American Research Group.
Stephen has yet to close the deal with Republican voters, winning only 68% of the GOP voters. 8% of registered Republicans support Lynch, while 21% (1 in 5) are undecided....
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ARG NH CD2 Poll: Bass 38%, Kuster 36%
The race for New Hampshire’s 2nd Congressional District is virtually tied, according to a new American Research Group survey. The survey of 400 likely voters gives Republican Charlie Bass a 2-point lead over Democrat Ann McLane Kuster, well within the poll’s 5-point margin of error.
Kuster picks up 13% of the Republican vote compared to 2% Democratic support for Bass. Kuster leads...
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ARG NH CD1 Poll: Guinta 50%, Shea-Porter 40%
Republican 1st District Congressional candidate Frank Guinta has opened up a 10-point lead in his race with Democrat Carol Shea-Porter, according to a survey out today from American Research Group.
Guinta has big leads among undeclared voters (55% - 28%) and men (53% - 37%).
The results are based on telephone interviews of 400 likely voters. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 5% at the 95%...
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ARG NH Senate Poll: Ayotte 46%, Hodes 32%
In a survey of 800 likely New Hampshire voters, Republican Senatorial candidate Kelly Ayotte has taken a 14 point lead over Democrat Rep. Paul Hodes according to an American Research Group poll out today.
Ayotte has a whopping 52% - 24% lead with Undeclared voters who represent 38% of the sample.
Among women voters, a group traditionally favoring Democratic candidates, Ayotte maintains a 45% -...
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Marchand: Motivate, Persuade & Tell the Story!
Former Portsmouth mayor Steve Marchand concedes Granite State Democrats face a challenging electoral environment, but says we have more control over our electoral destiny than many think.
New Hampshire Democrats may be uniquely positioned to buck some national trends — if voters, activists, and candidates keep the following three points in mind:
Motivation — The data are clear — in 2010, if...
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What Republican Enthusiasm?
New Hampshire Republicans held their state convention in Concord yesterday. Less than half the delegates bothered to show up.
[T]he Capitol Center was far from packed. Party spokesman Ryan Williams said organizers had expected about 400 of the 725 statewide delegates to show up. The final tally was 294.
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Elections Matter: New Health Care Protections in...
This week, a series of new rights, benefits, and protections under the Affordable Care Act begin to bring an end to some of the worst abuses of the insurance industry. Republicans Frank Guinta, Charlie Bass and Kelly Ayotte — along with the state and national Republican party leadership — believe that’s a bad thing.
Elections matter.
A brief summary of the new restrictions for...
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Dude, What Do You Really Think?
Speaking at the New Hampshire GOP State Convention, 1st District Congressional candidate Frank Guinta told delegates his opponent, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, has ripped the Constitution to shreds and wants to take New Hampshire further down the path to a Socialist society.
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Quote of the Day: A Black Guy with an Alien Name
A black guy with an alien name who was called a Muslim and a terrorist got elected president of the US by saying that he would raise taxes on people above $250,000. To which a Blue Dog would say, well, he lost my district by 15 points. To which I say, well, you’re not black with an alien name who’s being called a Muslim. Get out there and show some guts for a change.
—Michael...
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Turning a Lemon into Lemonade
North Carolina Republican Congressional candidate Ilario Pantano had footage to die for when he made a campaign ad: an introduction from NBC anchor Stone Phillips and reporter Ann Curry. They just needed a little editing.
Here are the original quotes, with the cuts in brackets:
[His decision to take two lives led to rare criminal charges that could cost him his own life.] Ilario Pantano,...
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GOP Crocodile Tears for Small Business
The Affordable Care Act raises $17 billion by requiring businesses to report all purchases from vendors above $600. Those purchases currently go unreported and the related taxes often go unpaid. The new 1099 requirement improves tax compliance but imposes new paperwork requirements on small businesses.
Frank Guinta makes the requirement a centerpiece of his attack on health care reform saying,...
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Listen to NHPR 2nd Congressional District Forum:
...
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I Was For It, Before I Was Against It, Before I...
Emerson said, “A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds.” By that measure — if no other — Sen Judd Gregg will never, ever be accused of having a little mind. Here is Gregg’s “evolving” position on using the Senate’s parliamentary process of budget reconciliation.
Judd Gregg (2005) on budget reconciliation to open the Arctic National...
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PCCC Collects 1000 Donations for Kuster in 24...
In just 24 hours, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee raised more than $12,000 from nearly 1000 contributors for 2nd District Congressional candidate Ann McLane Kuster.
Tuesday, Republican opponent Charlie Bass painted Kuster as a “liberal, progressive activist for Barack Obama.” Wednesday, the PCCC responded with an email to members asking, “What do we do when a Tea Party...
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Hodes Endorsed by Professional Fire Fighters of NH
The Professional Fire Fighters of New Hampshire today endorsed Rep. Paul Hodes for the U.S. Senate. The Fire Fighters are one of the state’s most important and politically active unions.
The Fire Fighters backed Hodes opponent, Republican Kelly Ayotte in the GOP Senate primary and endorsed Republican incumbent Sen. Judd Gregg in the 2004 general election for the Senate seat.
David Lang,...
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Quote of the Day: The GOP's Bad Idea
[W]hen you get past the adjectives and soaring language, the talk of inalienable rights and constitutional guarantees, you’re left with a set of hard promises that will increase the deficit by trillions of dollars, take health-care insurance away from tens of millions of people, create a level of policy uncertainty businesses have never previously known, and suck demand out of an economy...
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GOP Grown-Ups Oppose Extending Bush Tax Cuts
In the NHPR candidate forum this morning, U.S. Senate candidate Kelly Ayotte reiterated her support for extending the Bush-era tax cuts without paying for them — even for those making over $250,000/year — claiming it will help small businesses create jobs. Senior Republicans from the Reagan and Bush administrations know better:
While Republicans are heavily invested in permanently...
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Poll: 1 In 5 Americans Believe Obama Is A Cactus
According to a poll released Tuesday, nearly 20 percent of U.S. citizens now believe Barack Obama is a cactus, the most Americans to identify the president as a water-retaining desert plant since he took office.
According to the poll, Obama has lost favor among many voters who supported his candidacy in 2008 but have since come to doubt he is a mammal.
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Big Pharma Front Group Targets Shea-Porter
60 Plus Association describes itself as a “non-partisan seniors advocacy group.” In reality, it is a pharmaceutical industry front group that opposed health care reform and advocates for social security privatization.
60 Plus pledged to spend $1.5 million targeting Democrats who voted for health care reform. 1st District Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is one of their targets. Today, a direct...
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Quote of the Day: Denying Gays the Right to Marry
Republicans constantly claim to be the party that defends the Constitution. We have no legitimate right to that claim until we get right on gay rights. Sometime in the not too distant future, denying gays the right to marry will be viewed as historically corrupt—as corrupt as denying slaves their freedom.
—Mark McKinnon, former media adviser for President George W. Bush
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Listen to NHPR U.S. Senate Candidate Forum
New...
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Pro-Choice Action Alert: Put a Bow on It!
The issue of choice is rising to the top of the 2010 political debate as tea party conservatives test the limits of Granite State voters’ broad support for keeping abortion safe and legal.
Planned Parenthood of Northern New England is taking action to amplify the voices of New Hampshire’s pro-choice community in the critical weeks leading up to November’s election — and...
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91% of American Crossroads Funding from...
American Crossroads, the Karl Rove-backed group airing a new ad attacking U.S. Senate candidate Rep. Paul Hodes over his vote for the economic stimulus package, is funded almost entirely by billionaires.
Last month, American Crossroads raised $2,639,052. 91% of that ($2.4 million) came from just three billionaires: Trevor Rees-Jones, president of Dallas-based Chief Oil and Gas; Robert Rowling,...
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Paul Hodes Makes Cameo in "Turn It Up!" Trailer
U.S. Senatorial candidate — and musician — Rep. Paul Hodes makes a cameo appearance in the trailer for “Turn It Up!” a feature-length film hosted by Kevin Bacon.
Turn it Up! is the STORY of the electric guitar, from the invention in the 1930s to its golden years, right through the phenomenon of the Guitar Hero video-game and the digital guitars of the future. But, it’s also a series...
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Quote of the Day: Weaker, Narrower & Less...
The fact is: Social conservatives have come to dominate the Republican Party and they will simply not tolerate social moderates in their midst. That’s too bad because they are driving away good candidates. In the process, they are making the Republican Party weaker, narrower and less electable.
—Gerry Nicholls, political consultant for Republican U.S. Senate candidate Bill Binnie
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Judd Gregg: That was Then, This is Now
Sen. Judd Gregg on Pres. Bill Clinton (2010):
I think I could have worked for the Clinton administration. But if I had worked for this administration I would have been totally out of sync very quickly, because this administration has a very ideological purpose.
Whereas I think Bill Clinton was a centrist and basically approached most politics as a centrist. This administration is not...
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Shea-Porter: Vulnerable Champion for Climate...
Think Progress’ The Wonk Room calls Rep. Carol Shea-Porter a “vulnerable champion for climate action.” They highlight her race against Frank Guinta, a “right-wing ideologue who parrots the party line that cap-and-trade legislation is a job-killing ‘energy tax.’”
Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, first elected to New Hampshire’s southeastern first Congressional...
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Ms. Ayotte Goes to Washington
U.S. Senate candidate Kelly Ayotte wasted no time reserving her flight to Washington to pass the hat among the K Street lobbyist crowd.
Last Wednesday afternoon — literally just minutes after it became clear that New Hampshire Republican Kelly Ayotte had won the Senate primary — a Washington lobbyist sent off an email to a group of about 50 K Street cohorts.
“Now that...
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AFL-CIO Targets Kelly Ayotte with Direct Mail...
Today, the AFL-CIO sent out 2.5 million direct mail pieces attacking Republicans in approximately 50 congressional and gubernatorial races around the country.
One of the targets is New Hampshire Senate candidate Kelly Ayotte. The piece attacks Ayotte for her role in the FRM Ponzi scheme and asks, “We couldn’t trust Ayotte to protect us then, how can we trust her now?”
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NH Republicans Turning Against War in Afghanistan?
On “Morning Joe” this morning, Joe Scarborough and Mark Halperin discussed growing anti-war sentiment among New Hampshire Republicans and independents.
Scarborough: “You were in New Hampshire the night before we were. … Are you not struck by when you talk to Republicans, independents, Democrats, everybody is asking the same question … When are we going to get out of...
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Best Political Survey Question Ever
Public Policy Polling surveyed 475 likely voters in Ohio to determine if they have an favorable opinion of Rep. John Boehner’s tan.
Q: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Boehner’s tan?
Favorable: 8% Unfavorable: 27% Not sure: 64%
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DCCC Adds Kuster to "Red to Blue" Program
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has added New Hampshire 2nd District Congressional candidate Ann McLane Kuster to its Red to Blue program.
The Red to Blue program highlights top Democratic campaigns across the country, and offers them financial, communications, and strategic support.
These candidates earned a spot in the program by surpassing demanding fundraising goals and...
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Quote of the Day: GOP Implosion
It appears as if the Republican Party is imploding.
NH state Rep. Anthony DiFruscia, in an email to legislators. DiFruscia, a moderate, pro-gay marriage Republican who has served in the New Hampshire House for 10 years, was defeated in the GOP primary.
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Arlinghaus Frames the Election for Carol...
Competence, character and authenticity.
Charles Arlinghaus, president of the Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy, was not specifically referring to Carol Shea-Porter when he discussed the lessons of the primary election, but in doing so, he unknowingly made the case for her re-election.
Arlinghaus said … the economic downturn left voters sympathetic to knowledgeable candidates, even...
