Larry Sabato, director of the UVA Center for Politics, has consistently been one of the nation’s most accurate political prognosticators. He correctly predicted the result of every gubernatorial and U.S. Senate race in 2008 and was one of the first to forecast the 2010 House takeover by Republicans.
In an update to his predictions for the fall’s congressional elections, Sabato has moved New Hampshire’s 1st District race between Frank Guinta and Carol Shea-Porter from “Leans Republican” to “Toss up.” James Pindell has the explanation from Sabato and editor Kyle Kondik.
“[G]iven New Hampshire’s volatile and seemingly always shifting politics, it would not surprise us if an Obama win flipped both seats back to the Democrats in the fall — just like what happened in 2006, when both seats flipped together in a Democratic year. Nor would it surprise us if a Romney win kept both the seats in the GOP column. … New Hampshire looks like a coin-flip state right now at the presidential level — so why shouldn’t its two House seats also be coin flips, at least for now?”