It’s terribly unfortunate that the national wave upset over made-up social issues threw out the best Legislature the state has had in 100 years.
— Former Rep. Andrew Manuse on the 2012 election, in which Democrats regained control of the New Hampshire House with a net gain of 120 seats.
Fosters, the state’s most conservative newspaper this side of the Union Leader, jumps on the bandwagon and lays all the blame for big Democratic gains on state House Speaker Bill O’Brien:
To our way of thinking, the Speaker has abused the trust placed in him by his fellow legislators when they elected him to the leadership post. His efforts to run roughshod over the legislative process contributed significantly to Tuesday’s pendulum swing which saw Democrats able to retaliate by reclaiming the House and shrinking the number of Republicans in the N.H. Senate (13-11 as of this writing). We also believe O’Brien’s behavior contributed to the losses of Republican Congressmen Charlie Bass and Frank Guinta, as well as boosting Maggie Hassan’s victory margin over Republican Ovide Lamontagne.
In essence, on Tuesday New Hampshire voters got sweet revenge, in part, for being subjected to a state legislature — specifically the House — that too often lost focus on what matters — jobs and the economy.
As indicated above, when House Republicans meet to consider their leadership choices for the next legislative session they will do so as the minority party — and for that they can largely thank Bill O’Brien.
No person who is a registered voter in this state will be sent home without voting on Election Day. Every person will vote the same way, on a ballot that will be counted like any other ballot. The only difference is that some voters may have to sign an affidavit that simply says they are who they say they are.
— Bill Gardner, New Hampshire Secretary of State, explaining the state’s new voter ID law
John DiStaso reports New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner is predicting 722,000 voters will cast ballots in New Hampshire on Election Day, a turnout that would represent around 70% of the voting age population.
“That’s a really good turnout,” Gardner said.
Gardner said that in 2008, a total of 719,393 New Hampshire residents voted. He said that according to a U.S. Census Bureau estimate, there were 1,021,787 voting age residents of the state that year, both registered and non-registered.
That number was a 69.6 percent turnout, good for second in the nation behind only Minnesota, whose turnout in 2008 was 73.2 percent.
Just a few hours ago, GOP state Rep. Steve Vaillancourt wrote of the potential for “lower than expected turnout” based on reports of a decrease in the number of absentee ballot requests. ”If this is true,” declared Vaillancourt, “Obama and Democrats could be doomed in our four electoral vote state!”
An editorial in today’s Concord Monitor reminds us of the awful price we’ve paid for the state lawmakers we elected in 2010:
The last election brought us a House like none other recent memory. Decorum and civility were tossed aside. Proposed legislation — some of which made it into law — took aim at public schools, the separation between church and state, women’s rights, labor unions, gay families, the state university system and more. The newly revived Redress of Grievances Committee quickly became a kangaroo court, recommending that the House consider impeaching multiple judges after one-sided hearings from bitter litigants.
House lawmakers voted to lower the high-school dropout age. They approved a scheme to divert public money to help students attend religious schools. They voted to eliminate the minimum wage. They invited guns into the State House — and onto college campuses. With no evidence of significant fraud, they put new hurdles in front of voters. With no evidence of trouble, they sought to seize control of rule-making authority for the courts. With no evidence that patients were being mistreated, they attempted to insert government between pregnant women and their doctors.
Voters have a chance in November to put an end to these shenanigans and “set the House back on track,” the editors write, “but only if they choose wisely.”
The New Hampshire Constitution requires the question of whether to hold a constitutional convention to be submitted to the people at least once every ten years. That question will appear on the ballot in November as Question #3.
If a simple majority of the voters who vote on Question #3 support it, 400 delegates, elected by House district, will gather for a constitutional convention. The convention may, by a three-fifths vote, propose amendments to the state Constitution, which would then go before the voters and would require a two-thirds vote to pass.
On the Porcupines Facebook page, several Free Staters, including state House Reps. Seth Cohn and Jenn Coffey, debated the question.
Cohn supports it as a means to bypass the state Senate, which has blocked some of the radical amendments proposed by the House. Coffey thinks it’s “risky” and could lead to a “runaway” convention that would propose eliminating the Second Amendment.
The consensus among others who joined the conversation was to wait ten years until more Free Staters have moved to the state. “Imagine what could be done with 1000 more movers. 2000 more. etc.”
Excerpts from the full discussion follow below the fold.
A forecast model based on the partisan voting behavior of the state’s 204 House districts projects major gains for House Democrats in November.
Five weeks before the election, the model projects Democrats will win back most of the seats lost in the 2010 Republican wave and have an even chance of regaining the majority in the 400-seat House chamber.
The model, which correctly predicted the historical GOP gains in 2010, is based on a positive correlation between the national partisan vote and House election results. It contains just two variables, the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for each district and the projected national popular vote for president.
This model does not attempt to predict the results for any individual House seat. It assumes Democrats will win four of ten seats that have a 40% win probability, for example, but does not attempt to determine which four. There is no attempt to judge the strengths or weaknesses of individual candidates or their campaigns.
Based on a projection that President Obama will win the national popular vote by a 3.9% margin, the model today predicts Granite State Democrats will win 200 House seats, exactly half, in November. The exact projection will fluctuate with the ebb and flow of the campaign. These day-to-day fluctuations aren’t particularly meaningful, but I do update the projection daily based on changing projections for the nation presidential vote.
Writing in The Lobby, Kevin Landrigan drills down into the Democratic turnout numbers for the September primary. The unexpectedly high turnout — the second highest in the party’s history — is just one more sign that New Hampshire Democrats are “very fired up,” he writes.
[B]ehind the numbers were other signs of a very fired up Democratic base.
The Democratic ballots cast in three counties, Grafton, Cheshire and Strafford exceeded those cast for Republicans.
That’s worth noting particularly in the western part of the state since neither Hassan or Cilley had any past experience or personal connection to turning votes out there.
Cilley hails from Strafford County — Democrat-rich territory to be sure.
19 Republican state House incumbents were defeated in party primaries after being targeted by conservative special interest groups. An editorial in today’s Keene Sentinel calls these results a “condemnation of moderation:”
[I]f the primary results are any indication, the party winds are shifting toward a more anti-labor, socially conservative stance and, in many cases, a fiscal agenda that puts short-term budget slashing over the long-term well-being of the state’s residents.
This rightward shift in the Republican party is a sad chapter for a state that has seen great moderate — Republican statesmen of the likes of the late Gov. Walter Peterson and the late Malcolm McLane, a former executive councilor. Peterborough-native Peterson made great strides in Concord with his charm and ability to unite both parties and was respected as a selfless public servant — even acting as his hometown’s moderator until shortly before his death.
If there’s one thing the new wave of conservative Republicans won’t have to worry about, it’s being known for their abilities to unite.
The Republican primary for the Distict 4 Executive Council seat went down to the wire with Hillsborough County Treasurer Robert Burns eking out a victory over Sen. Tom De Blois and Chuck Rolecek.
As Republicans gathered after the primary for a Unity Breakfast, Burns — who was endorsed by the Republican Liberty Caucus, Cornerstone and other right-wing groups — was on the radio trashing his primary opponents. GOP state Rep. Steve Vaillancourt has the details:
Girard’s guest was the presumptive Republican winner Burns. Even as Republicans were pulling into the Unity breakfast parking lot, there was Bob Burns slurring both Republican opponents he had beaten two days before. …
Burns took a shot at Rolececk as being part of the Millenium company trying to bring expanded gambling (slots) to Rockingham Park. That was just after he blasted Tom DeBlois for overcharging the state on rental properties.
If DeBlois or Rolecek endorses him after hearing those comments, it will certainly be no more than a lukewarm nod done for party unity. He doesn’t even deserve that.
You can add “moderate Republican” to your list of favorite oxymorons. In last Tuesday’s Republican primary, a concerted effort by conservative special interest groups successfully targeted GOP lawmakers who failed to toe the ideological line on issues ranging from right to work and RGGI to marriage equality.
House Speaker Bill O’Brien, who easily won his primary challenge, was the big winner of the night. Many of the defeated GOP House members had been adversaries. Kevin Landrigan detailed the carnage:
Several social and fiscal conservative groups on their own, and in some cases in concert with others, were going after either pro-labor or socially moderate House GOP incumbents.
These conservative groups included the Republican Liberty Caucus of New Hampshire, Cornerstone Action, New Hampshire Firearms Coalition, New England Right to Work Campaign, National Organization for Marriage, New Hampshire Advantage Coalition and state chapter of Americans for Prosperity.
O’Brien insisted he didn’t advise leaders of these groups on whom they should work to help elect or defeat in GOP primaries.
Victims of the purge included Reps. Peter Bolster (R-Alton), Julie Brown (R-Rochester), Russ Day, (R-Goffstown), Richard Dwinnell (R-Fitzwilliam), Karen Hutchinson (R-Londonderry), William Remick (R-Lancaster), Tony Soltani (R-Epsom) and David Welch (R-Kingston).
The Republican Liberty Caucus of New Hampshire, a group closely aligned with the Free State Project, claimed 86% of their endorsed candidates won on Tuesday. At least three of the six Republican “turncoats” targeted by RLCNH lost.
The six incumbents misrepresented themselves as Republicans and actively worked against Republican “campaign rhetoric” when they got into office, explained RLCNH chair Carolyn McKinney. “The elimination of just one of these turncoats is a victory for the people of their district, the state as a whole and the Republican Party, and we’re elated we were able to defeat three of them.”
Last week, Grant Bosse reported that Secretary of State Bill Gardner confirmed that the New Hampshire Libertarian Party had qualified for the November ballot by submitting over 15,000 petitions.
Not so fast, says Kevin Landrigan. Landrigan reports that the New Hampshire Republican Party challenged the petitions, arguing that state law requires the petitions to be signed in the year of the election. Many of the Libertarian petitions were gathered in 2010 and 2011.
Secretary of State Bill Gardner’s office essentially agreed with the Republicans that that is how he interpreted the law as well.
Attorney General Mike Delaney’s office, thelobbynh.com has learned, has essentially advised the Secretary of State Bill Gardner that this met the spirit of the law, that these petitions were all gathered after the 2010 election. Therefore, they were to apply to the next election in 2012.
The Attorney General is the final arbiter in interpreting state election law, so that’s pretty much where it stands.
It is not yet known if the state GOP will appeal the Attorney General’s decision in court.
A progressive perspective on New Hampshire politics and other oddities.
William Tucker is an architect in Portsmouth.
Projected Democratic seats: 190
