Polling newcomer New England College made a strong showing in its debut. The new polling unit in the college’s Center for Civic Engagement, led by Dr. Ben Tafoya, finished atop an evaluation of polling firms that surveyed the Granite State during this year’s presidential contest.
Ten pollsters conducted 19 surveys of the presidential race in New Hampshire during the last three weeks of the campaign. New England College, Public Policy Polling and UNH each surveyed the state three times during this period. American Research Group, Lake Research and Rasmussen each conducted two polls. Gravis Marketing, Grove, NBC/Marist and online pollster YouGov surveyed the state once.
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A new poll from American Research Group indicated President Obama and Mitt Romney are tied at 49% each in the contest for New Hampshire’s four electoral votes. The last ARG survey had Romney with a four point lead over Obama.
American Research Group surveyed 600 likely Granite State voters on November 2-4, 2012. The poll has a +/-4.0% margin of error.
A new poll from American Research Group has Republican Ovide Lamontagne opening up a six point lead over Democrat Maggie Hassan in the New Hampshire gubernatorial contest. Lamontagne leads Hassan 46% to 40% with 11% undecided. The same sample had Mitt Romney leading President Obama, 50% to 46%.
Lamontagne leads among men voters, 55% to 35%, but trails among women, 38% to 43% — a 23 point gender gap. One month ago, ARG had Lamontagne out front by a 47% to 45% margin.
American Research Group surveyed 600 likely Granite State voters on October 9-11, 2012. The poll has a +/-4.0% margin of error.
A new poll from American Research Group has Mitt Romney opening up a four point lead over President Obama in the contest for New Hampshire’s four electoral votes. Romney leads the survey of likely voters 50% to 46%, a nine point swing from last month’s ARG survey when Obama led 50% to 45%.
Romney made big gains among Granite State women. In the September survey, Obama led among women voters by a 14 point margin, 52% to 38%. In today’s poll, women are evenly split, with Obama leading just 49% to 48%.
American Research Group surveyed 600 likely Granite State voters on October 9-11, 2012. The poll has a +/-4.0% margin of error.
Another poll is out, this one from American Research Group, showing President Obama with a significant lead among New Hampshire voters. In the ARG survey of 600 likely Granite State voters, President Obama leads Mitt Romney 50% to 45% with 4% undecided.
Obama leads among women, 52% to 38%, but trails among men, 45% to 55% — a whopping 24 point gender gap. Obama has a nine point lead, 51% to 42%, among Independents who make up 40% of the sample.
American Research Group surveyed 600 likely Granite State voters on September 25-27, 2012. The poll has a +/-4.0% margin of error.
An American Research Group survey of registered voters in New Hampshire gives President Obama an eight point lead over Mitt Romney in the battle for the state’s four electoral votes.
The poll documents a whopping 34 point gender gap with Obama leading 58-34 among women, but trailing 44-52 among men. Undeclared voters, who made up 36 percent of the sample, favored Obama by an overwhelming 62-31 margin.
The results are based on 535 telephone interviews of registered voters on June 21-24, 2012. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.2 points.
In last week’s ARG survey of likely GOP voters in the New Hampshire presidential primary, 47% responded that they consider themselves “supporters” of the Tea Party. An earlier Magellan survey found 58% of likely Granite State GOP primary voters supported the goals of the Tea Party “all” or “most of the time.”
Mitt Romney maintained a similar lead among the Tea Party supporters (30%) and those who said they are not supporters or are undecided (33%). Several other potential candidates, however, displayed a significant difference in support between the two groups. Donald Trump (Tea party supporters: 21%, non-supporters: 14%) and Newt Gingrich (11%, 5%) received significantly more support from Tea Party supporters, while Rudy Giuliani (2%, 14%) and Mike Huckabee (4%, 11%) received more support from those who are not Tea Party supporters.
The results were based on telephone interviews of 600 likely Republican primary voters (422 Republicans and 178 undeclared voters). The survey had a margin of error of +/- 4% at the 95% confidence interval. It was conducted on April 16 - 21, 2011.
As GOP presidential wannabes begin to flood the state, Mitt Romney continues to hold a double-digit lead over his nearest competitor in the New Hampshire presidential primary. (Though as I’ve said, it doesn’t matter.)
In a new ARG survey of likely Republican primary voters, Romney leads the field with 32%. Donald Trump is his nearest competitor with 17%. Four others —Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul — trail far behind at 8%.
The rest of the field — Bachmann, Barbour, Cain, Daniels, Huntsman, Johnson, Karger, Palin, Pataki, Rand Paul, Pawlenty, Roemer and Santorum — fails to register more than 1 or 2%.
The results are based on telephone interviews of 600 likely Republican primary voters (422 Republicans and 178 undeclared voters). The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4% at the 95% confidence interval. It was conducted on April 16 - 21, 2011.
Obama’s approval rating among New Hampshire adults is the highest measured since June 2009.
In the latest New Hampshire Poll from American Research Group (ARG), 47% of Granite State adults say they approve of the way President Obama is handling his job as president. 36% say they disapprove and 18% are undecided. This marks a dramatic swing from the last survey in September, when 34% expressed approval and 55% disapproved.
The rise in Obama’s job approval mirrors his uptick in national job approval ratings. President Obama’s national job approval in the Gallup Daily tracking poll today reached the symbolic 50% mark for the first time since late May/early June 2010.
Gov. John Lynch begins his historic fourth term with a 61% job approval, his highest rating in 3-1/2 years. The latest quarterly New Hampshire Poll from American Research Group (ARG) indicates Lynch’s job approval has rebounded dramatically since the Gubernatorial campaign last fall.
61% of those surveyed now say they approve of the way Lynch is handling his job as Governor, compared to just 12% who disapprove. In September 2010, 40% expressed approval compared to 39% who disapproved. Lynch takes the oath of office Thursday to begin his fourth term.
The results are based on telephone interviews of 600 adults and include 560 registered voters (151 Republicans, 162 Democrats, and 247 undeclared). The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4% at the 95% confidence interval. It was conducted on December 26 - 29, 2010.
Incumbent Democratic Gov. John Lynch has opened up a ten point lead over Republican challenger John Stephen — if you believe today’s new survey from American Research Group.
Lynch leads Stephen 51% - 41% with 6% undecided. Lynch held a 2-point lead (42% - 40%) in the last ARG survey nine days ago.
The new survey indicates Stephen has improved his standing among Republican voters, now winning support from 78%, a 10-point improvement from the previous survey. But Stephen lost 13 points with Undeclared voters. Lynch now leads 49% - 43% among Undeclared after trailing 38% - 45% in the previous poll.
The results are based on telephone interviews of 600 likely voters. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4% at the 95% confidence interval. The survey was conducted on October 3-5, 2010.
In nine days, Rep. Paul Hodes has cut Republican Kelly Ayotte’s lead for the U.S. Senate seat from 14 points to five — if you believe the American Research Group poll out today.
In a survey of 600 likely New Hampshire voters, Republican Ayotte holds a 47% - 42% over Democrat Hodes. ARG’s last poll, just nine days ago, had Ayotte up by a 46% - 32% margin.
Ayotte continues to maintain a large advantage with Undeclared voters but her 50% - 35% margin actually represents an 11-point improvement for Hodes who trailed Undeclared 50% - 24% in the previous survey.
ARG also measures a 13-point swing among women voters with Hodes now holding a nine point lead (49% - 41%) after trailing 30% - 45% last week.
The results are based on telephone interviews of 600 likely voters. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4% at the 95% confidence interval. The poll was conducted on October 3-5, 2010.
I’ll let Swing State Project have the last word:
Wow! Wild fluctuation in an ARG poll! I’m sure that’s never happened before!
Projected Democratic seats: 190
