President Obama leads Mitt Romney 49% to 47% among likely Granite State voters in a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll. Obama led 51% to 44% in NBC’s September poll.
Democrat Maggie Hassan has opened up a five point advantage over Republican Ovide Lamontagne and leads 49% to 44%. Hassan led by two points, 47% to 45%, in the last survey.
The results are based on interviews with 1013 likely voters on October 28-29, 2012. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.
A survey commissioned by USAction and conducted by Lake Research Partners shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney 48% to 45% in the contest for New Hampshire’s four electoral votes. 7% are undecided.
“Driving the President’s lead on the ballot is a significant 13-point gender gap,” said pollster Celinda Lake. “Currently, a 52% majority of women is supporting Obama, while just 43% are voting for Romney. Among men, Romney is ahead by just 4 points, well within the survey’s margin of error: 47% to 43%.”
Lake added that Romney’s unpopularity among women is a serious drag on his New Hampshire numbers. “Women liked him on the first date, but not the second date and not the third,” she said.
Lake Research Partners interviewed 400 likely voters on October 18-22, 2012. The survey has a +/-4.9% margin of error.
The Portsmouth Herald today endorsed President Obama. “When you cut through the Republicans’ untruths, half-truths and downright lies,” they wrote, “it becomes clear that President Obama has helped the American people in his first term despite an opposition party whose stated purpose was his destruction.”
We trust President Obama to fight for the middle class, to continue growing jobs and educational opportunities. We trust he will work to continue increasing our energy independence while protecting the environment for future generations. We trust him to protect Medicare and Social Security and to build a health care system that expands coverage while reducing overall costs. We trust him to protect women’s health choices and to appoint rational, common-sense justices to the Supreme Court. We trust his diplomatic approach to foreign policy. We trust in President Obama’s integrity, decency and intelligence.
Here’s where we stand nine days before the election, according to uber-statistician Nate Silver. President Obama is projected to carry the Granite State with a 2.4% margin. Silver calculates a +-4.4% margin of error in the projection, which he translates to a 70% probability that the President will win the state. Silver’s projection even accounts for our notorious fickleness.
New Hampshire, for instance, is notorious for unreliable polling and for voters making up their mind at the last minute. This is probably not just a coincidence; New Hampshire has a disproportionate number of independent voters, and their preferences are more fickle than those of strong partisans. Thus, holding a small lead in the polling average in New Hampshire will not translate into victory as reliably as in another state like Pennsylvania, which has fewer swing voters and where elections are usually come down to a contest to turn out the respective party bases. The FiveThirtyEight forecast accounts for these properties.
Two new polls came out today, both giving President Obama a 3-point lead in the contest for New Hampshire’s four electoral votes.
Grove Insight: Obama 47%, Romney 44%
A new survey conducted by Grove Insight has President Obama leading Mitt Romney by a 47% to 44% margin. 7% are undecided.
The poll commissioned by progressive-oriented Project New America and US Action documents a dramatic 32-point gender gap. Obama has a 19-point lead (56% to 37%) among women voters, but trails by 13-points (39% to 52%) with men. Obama is more popular, with a +6 net favorability rating (52% favorable, 46% unfavorable) compared to Romney’s -3 rating (48% favorable, 51% unfavorable).
The results are based on interviews with 500 likely voters conducted by Grove Insight October 24-25, 2012. The margin of error is +-4.4%.
New England College: Obama 49%, Romney 46%
WMUR reports the first ever survey from New England College’s Center for Civic Engagement gives President Obama a 49% to 46% lead over Mitt Romney with 4% undecided.
The respondents were also polled on the state’s gubernatorial contest. In that race, Democrat Maggie Hassan and Republican Ovide Lamontagne tied at 45% each. 9% were undecided.
The results are based on automated calls to 571 likely voters on October 23-25, 2012 using landlines and cellphones.The survey has a margin of error of +-4.1%.
President Obama now holds a “statistically significant” eight-point lead over Mitt Romney in New Hampshire according to the latest Granite State Poll. Obama leads Romney by a 49% to 41% margin with 7% undecided. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 51% to 42%.
Two weeks ago, Obama led 47% to 41%. The President’s lead has bounced around, but he has led every Granite State Poll this year.
87% of likely voters in the Granite State now say they have definitely decided who they will vote for. 7% are leaning towards one candidate and only 6% say they are still undecided.
The survey measured a 30-point gender gap between the two candidates. Obama leads among women by a 57% to 34% margin, but trails among men 42% to 49%.
The Granite State Poll is conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The results are based on telephone interviews of 773 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. The survey was conducted on October 17-21, 2012 on landline and cellular telephones.
Writing in the Guardian, Harry J. Enten captures the electoral ethos in the Granite State. “This is a state that likes to mess with everyone,” he writes. “When you combine the presidential, gubernatorial and congressional races, I’m not sure there is more exciting state for elections this year.”
The sudden Romney rise confirms yet again that this is a state that likes to mess with everyone. It was this electorate that handed pollsters their greatest embarrassment in arguably 60 years when Hillary Clinton defeated Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic primary, despite all the polls saying otherwise. It’s a state where the plurality (45%) of voters self-identify as independent, and Republicans and Democrat split fairly equally the other 55%.
But New Hampshire’s fun doesn’t stop at the presidential race. New Hampshire and Vermont are the two remaining states that hold gubernatorial elections every two years. Democratic incumbent governor John Lynch is retiring. Democrat Maggie Hassan and Republican Ovide Lamontagne are facing off in what looks to be one of the tightest gubernatorial races in the nation.
New Hampshire’s electoral fun doesn’t stop in the statewide races, though. Both House of Representative races are rematches of 2010 and are too close to call. … Any combination of House winners seem possible. Democrats could win both seats, Republicans could win both seats, Guinta could win but see Bass lose, or Shea-Porter could win with Kuster losing.
All told, New Hampshire is a tricky state and nothing really surprises me. When you combine the presidential, gubernatorial and congressional races, I’m not sure there is more exciting state for elections this year. And I didn’t even mention that no one really knows who wins either house of the state legislature, either.
You’ve got a state legislature up here that sometimes acts like it knows better than women when it comes to women’s own health care decisions. You know, my opponent’s got the same approach.
— President Obama, campaigning in Manchester, on the GOP-dominated New Hampshire legislature
The latest survey from Rasmussen Reports calls the contest for New Hampshire’s four electoral votes a toss-up, with President Obama leading Mitt Romney 50% to 49%. Just 1% remain undecided. The race is essentially unchanged from Rasmussen’s survey last week that had the candidates were knotted up at 48%.
Obama’s job approval mirrors his support. 50% of those surveyed approve of the way the President is handling his job, 49% disapprove.
Romney’s favorability rating has increased slightly. 52% of likely voters now have a favorable opinion of the former governor compared to 48% who view him unfavorably.
The results are based on a survey of 500 likely voters conducted on October 15, 2012. Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to reach those without landline telephones. The margin of error is +/- 4.5%.
5.2 million jobs, 18 small business tax cuts, 16 stops, ten counties, one RV and zero sleep. That’s how the New Hampshire Obama campaign bills their upcoming “Around the Clock for Barack: the 24 Hour Tour for the Middle Class” campaign event.
Thursday, after President Obama campaigns in Manchester, surrogates and supporters will board an RV and campaign non-stop for 24 hours with events in all ten New Hampshire counties. The tour’s late night and early morning stops will include campuses and diners and will be followed by a full day of campaigning on Friday.
“This 24 hour tour will highlight the contributions made to our community by Granite Staters from all walks of life at all hours,” promised Obama spokeswoman Holly Shulman.
You can follow the fun on Twitter (#nh24obama) and Facebook.
Projected Democratic seats: 190
