Tuesday, activists from “The Action” caroled outside the Nashua office of Rep.
Charlie Bass. The singers asked the outgoing congressman to “do the right thing” and
end the Bush-era tax cuts for high-income earners.
Deck the halls with fairer taxes, Fa la la la la la la la la. Put away
the budget axes Fa la la la la la la la la. Unemployment compensation, Fa la la la la la la la la. Helps the jobless, helps the nation, Fa la la
la la la la la la.
Taxes on estates and wealthy, Fa la la la la la la la la. Makes the
budget be more healthy, Fa la la la la la la la la. Organize for higher
wages, Fa la la la la la la la la. Do not raise retirement ages, Fa la
la la la la la la la.
Friends of Democracy today launched the final salvo of their campaign to unseat New Hampshire Congressman Charlie Bass. The $363,000 campaign has targeted nearly 8% of likely voters in the state’s 2nd Congressional District with television ads, phone calls to over 28,000 independent voters, eight direct mail pieces and online ads.
Friends of Democracy, co-founded by Jonathan Soros, is dedicated to making elected officials more responsive to constituents and less beholden to special interests. New Hampshire’s 2nd District is one of eleven House districts in which the organization is working to defeat incumbents who oppose campaign finance reform.
“The crystal clear lesson from this election is that voters have had it with the pay-to-play culture that has ruled Washington for so long,” said co-director and co-founder Ilyse Hogue. “From voting with his insurance industry donors to using his political access to enrich himself and family members, Rep. Bass represents an old way of doing business that doesn’t work for New Hampshire and doesn’t work for our country.”
The latest New England College poll from the school’s Center for Civic Engagement is out with results for the Granite State’s presidential and congressional contests.
President Obama leads Mitt Romney by a 49.5% to 44.4% margin. Last week, Obama led 49% to 46%. This is the fifth consecutive survey over the last seven days showing Obama with a lead.
Congressman Frank Guinta has opened up a seven point lead over Democrat Carol Shea-Porter in the state’s 1st Congressional District. The incumbent leads his challenger 48% to 41%, with 9% undecided.
In the more Democratic 2nd District, Democrat Annie Kuster leads Congressman Charlie Bass by a 47% to 41% margin. 11% are still undecided.
The results are based on automated calls using landlines and cellphones to 1017 likely voters with a +/- 3.7% margin of error and subsamples of 511 likely voters in the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts with +/- 4.3% margins of error. The survey was conducted on October 29-31, 2012.
The Rothenberg Political Report, a non-partisan newsletter covering campaigns and politics, changed its ratings for both New Hampshire congressional contests today to “Pure Toss-Up.”
The 1st District rematch between Congressman Frank Guinta and Democrat Carol Shea-Porter had been rated “Toss-Up/Tilt Republican.” The 2nd District race between Congressman Charlie Bass and Democrat Annie Kuster had been rated “Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat.”
Rothenberg Report projects a Democratic gain of two to eight U.S. House seats, short of the 25 seat pickup they need for a majority.
New Hampshire voters have not sent a Democrat and a Republican to the U.S. House in the same election since 1992, when the 1st District elected Republican Bill Zeliff and the 2nd District chose Democrat Dick Swett. But today, two national observers said that is a distinct possibility this year.
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball makes a call in every single House race before Election Day. Editor Kyle Kondik made picks in their 14 remaining toss-up seats today, changing the rating for the 1st District to “Leans Republican” and the 2nd District to “Leans Democratic:”
New Hampshire’s schizophrenic politics makes deciphering elections there quite difficult, and the very close presidential and gubernatorial races are providing little top-of-the-ticket evidence of a partisan lean one way or the other in the Granite State. For most of the cycle, it has appeared that Rep. Charlie Bass (R, NH-2) was in worse shape than Rep. Frank Guinta (R, NH-1), and that in addition to the district fundamentals (Bass’s district is more Democratic than the first) is why we favor Bass to lose to Ann McLane Kuster (D) but Guinta to hang on against ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D).
Meanwhile, Roll Call’s Abby Livingston claimed “Democrats are more confident about their prospects in the 2nd district, while Republicans are more upbeat about holding the 1st district:”
The reasons that many Granite State political observers are preparing for a split delegation are plenty. There is no national wave; as House race veterans, the candidates are already well-known and defined; both parties are overloading the television airwaves with political advertising; and polling indicates the presidential race is tightening.
Republicans are confident Romney will win Guinta’s 1st district, and Democrats share a similar confidence that Obama will carry Bass’ 2nd district.
In the 1st district especially, it is hard to imagine much crossover voting. Guinta and Shea Porter are often described as fierce partisans, and as a result, this is a district where the presidential contest will matter more than most.
Writing in the Guardian, Harry J. Enten is not convinced:
Any combination of House winners seem possible. Democrats could win both seats, Republicans could win both seats, Guinta could win but see Bass lose, or Shea-Porter could win with Kuster losing.
Today, the Keene Sentinel endorsed Democrat Ann Kuster over Congressman Charlie Bass for the 2nd District Congressional seat. “Kuster will stand in Washington as a compassionate force for sensible policies rooted in a deep understanding of the issues facing Americans today,” the editors wrote.
Kuster supports reforming the Medicare system by changing the financially inexpedient way care is paid for under the health insurance plan for seniors, while Bass has voiced consideration for a proposal known as “premium support” that could otherwise be described as a voucher system, giving seniors money to shop for health care in the private market.
Meanwhile, Bass wants to continue with the failed idea that keeping taxes low for the wealthiest will eventually spur economic recovery, while Kuster supports ending tax cuts for the richest Americans to help restore a thriving middle class.
It is the wide gulf between the policy agendas of the two candidates that most heavily influenced our decision to endorse Ann McLane Kuster for the 2nd District post.
The latest WMUR Granite State Poll surveyed likely New Hampshire voters on their choices for governor and for Congress. All three races have a large number of undecided voters.
The gubernatorial race between Democrat Maggie Hassan and Republican Ovide Lamontagne is still a toss-up an. The number of undecided voters has increased, “a strong indication that voters here not familiar with the candidates and have not yet focused on this race,” writes Andy Smith. “Even when undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward supporting there remains a very high percentage of likely voters who have not yet decided who they will support.”
This week’s survey claims a huge swing in the 1st District Congressional race between Congressman Frank Guinta and Democrat Carol Shea-Porter. Shea-Porter had an 11-point lead just last week. This week, the poll has Guinta leading by seven points, 40% to 33%. Smith notes “caution should be exercised in interpreting these results as the margin of sampling error is +/-6.9% and findings are less stable than if a larger sample had been interviewed.”
Democrat Ann Kuster maintains a three point lead over Congressman Charlie Bass in the 2nd District Congressional race. She leads Bass by a 35% to 32% margin with 30% undecided. The race is virtually unchanged from last week when Kuster lead 36% to 34%. “Again,” Smith warns, “caution should be exercised in interpreting these results.”
The Granite State Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. These results are based on telephone interviews of 419 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.8% and subsamples of 200 likely 1st District voters with a margin of error of +/- 6.9% and 211 likely 2nd District voters with a margin of error of +/- 6.7%. The survey was conducted on October 1-6, 2012 on landline and cellular telephones.
Roll Call names 2nd District Congressman Charlie Bass one of the ten most vulnerable members of Congress.
Bass is a veteran of competitive races and the wave elections of 2006 and 2010 — the years he got swept out of and then back into Congress. This year there is no political tide moving in one direction and Bass’ political skills will be tested in a neutral environment. His district favors Democrats, making him a top target from the very beginning of the cycle. He faces a rematch from 2010 with Ann McLane Kuster, who never stopped running after her loss two years ago. Much has been written about the demise of the New England Republican. Next month, Bass wants to prove the old Mark Twain adage true.
Today’s WMUR Granite State Poll indicates Democrats Carol Shea-Porter and Ann McLane Kuster have pulled ahead of incumbent Republican Congressmen Frank Guinta and Charlie Bass in two of the nation’s most competitive congressional races.
Shea-Porter has opened up an 11-point lead, leading Guinta 46% to 35% among likely voters in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District. 18% are undecided. Kuster leads Bass by two points, 36% to 34%, in the 2nd District Congressional race. A whopping 28% say they are still undecided.
Shea-Porter is better liked than Guinta. 48% of voters have a favorable opinion of Shea-Porter compared to 34% who view her unfavorably. 39% dislike Guinta, more than the 38% who view him favorably.
Bass’ favorability rating has plummeted. 43% now view Bass unfavorably compared to 38% who have an favorable opinion. 35% have a favorable opinion of Kuster, while 25% view her unfavorably.
The Granite State Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The results are based on telephone interviews of 638 adults with a margin of error of +/- 3.9% and subsamples of 273 likely 1st District voters with a margin of error of +/- 5.9% and 325 likely 2nd District voters with a margin of error of +/- 5.4%. The survey was conducted on September 27-30, 2012 on landline and cellular telephones.
New Hampshire Congressman Charlie Bass was named one of eight “Foes of Democracy” today for his record on corruption and opposition to campaign finance reform. Friends of Democracy, a SuperPAC co-founded by Jonathan Soros, is kicking off a $200,000 campaign to unseat the 2nd District Congressman.
The group, which was formed to combat the outsize influence of money in politics, will micro-target voters with direct mail, telephone contact and online advertising. The campaign follows up on a $183,000 television buy in August.
“Rep. Charlie Bass represents the worst of our pay-to-play political system. He has taken in $166,000 from the oil industry while voting to preserve billions of dollars in subsidies for the biggest multinational oil corporations,” said Friends of Democracy co-director Ilyse Hogue.
“Meanwhile, voters at home are worried about their jobs and wondering why the richest oil companies get tax breaks at the expense of the middle class,” she added. “Voters have had it with this kind of corruption, and Friends of Democracy intends to get these facts out every day between now and the election.”
Democrat Ann Kuster has opened up a six point lead over Congressman Charlie Bass in New Hampshire’s 2nd Congressional District. Kuster leads Bass 51% to 45% in a new survey conducted by Public Policy Polling and paid for by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee.
In the state’s competitive 1st District race, challenger Carol Shea-Porter and Congressman Frank Guinta are in a statistical dead heat. 48% voiced support for Shea-Porter, 47% for Guinta and 4% were undecided.
Public Policy Polling surveyed 410 likely voters in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District with a +/-4.9% margin of error and 461 likely voters in the 2nd Congressional District with a +/-4.6% margin of error. The survey took place on September 24-25, 2012.
The respected Cook Political Report changed its rating for New Hampshire’s 2nd Congressional District race from “Toss Up” to “Leans Democratic.” The rematch pits Congressman Charlie Bass against Democrat Ann Kuster.
Projected Democratic seats: 190
