The National Journal’s Hotline on Call predicts wins for Republican Ovide Lamontagne and Democrat Maggie Hassan in today’s gubernatorial primaries. And they’ve already made Lamontagne the favorite in the general.
— Ovide Lamontagne (R) is making his 3rd try for statewide office … He’s likely to hold off young upstart Kevin Smith tomorrow, thanks to better name ID and a bigger wallet. A sign of Lamontagne’s lead: His first, and only, ad is overwhelmingly positive. Smith hasn’t been on air as much, but expect to hear his name in the future. He’s just 35 years old.
— Ex-state Sen. Maj. Leader Maggie Hassan is likely to win the Dem nod over ex-state Sen. Jackie Cilley. Hassan has establishment support, but Cilley is firing up the base more than Hassan has. Still, Hassan has dominated the airwaves, and Cilley has been dark for 2 weeks.
[A]fter 4 terms of Lynch, Lamontagne’s outsider image probably makes him the slight favorite.
In a story Sept. 9 about the New Hampshire Democratic gubernatorial primary, The Associated Press erroneously reported which people are portrayed as zombies in a tax ad by Democrat Jackie Cilley’s campaign. The ad portrays those who take the state’s traditional anti-tax pledge as zombies, not those who refuse to do so.
Kevin Landrigan predicts wins for Republican Ovide Lamontagne and Democrat Maggie Hassan in tomorrow’s gubernatorial primaries:
Republican Primary Ovide Lamontagne: 58% Kevin Smith: 40% Robert Tarr: 2%
Lamontagne ran a race like he never had before, aiming squarely from the beginning at the economic conservative base of his party, yet offering little to rally behind social conservatives that had always formed his secret weapon in primaries past.
Hassan ran into a pit bull opponent in Cilley, who parlayed organized labor dissatisfaction with Hassan over retirement reform into key endorsements from powerful public employee labor unions.
With an open seat, two competitive primary contests and scads of undecided voters, the New Hampshire’s gubernatorial race is garnering national attention.
Of the 11 gubernatorial races around the country, Washington Post writer Sean Sullivan identifies the Granite State contest as the second most likely to change parties in The Fix:
A recent University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll conducted for WMUR-TV showed Republican Ovide Lamontagne, a former Senate and gubernatorial candidate, running about even with both former state Senate majority leader Maggie Hassan (D) and former state senator Jackie Cilley (D). But a lot of votes will be up for grabs this fall, with a sizable chunk of the electorate currently undecided (and unfamiliar) about the candidates. The primary is Sept. 11, and frontrunners Lamontagne and Hassan (who is backed by Bill Clinton) have outspent their respective opponents. But a recent survey from Democratic automated pollster Public Policy Polling showed Hassan in a tighter primary race than Lamontagne.
Politico’s David Catanese ranks the race as the second most competitive contest for governor this cycle:
Its Sept. 11 primary is the last on the calendar, but this under-the-radar open-seat race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive gubernatorial fights in the country. With less than two weeks until voters select the nominees, the majority of the electorate doesn’t know three of the four candidates running — and doesn’t appear to be that interested. Former gubernatorial and U.S. Senate candidate Ovide Lamontagne is expected to withstand a spunky challenge by former lawmaker Kevin Smith for the GOP nod. The Democratic fight is a bit trickier to handicap, with former state Senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan clinging to a 6-point advantage over former lawmaker Jackie Cilley in an August Public Policy Polling survey that showed a whopping 46 percent undecided.
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Maggie Hassan today announced that former President Bill Clinton will endorse her candidacy next week.
Politico’s Charles Mahtesian writes that the endorsement is just the latest “reminder of the lingering tensions and loyalties that still exist from the 2008 Democratic presidential primary.”
Hassan, a former state senator who is running for the Democratic nomination against another former state legislator, Jackie Cilley, was a vigorous supporter of Hillary Clinton in her 2008 presidential run.
Hassan’s backing came at a time when it mattered — in Sept. 2007 — and in a key state that Hillary Clinton ultimately won. Bill Clinton’s endorsements this year reflect a pattern of rewarding those who backed his wife.
Cilley backed Obama in 2008, which will invariably frame the primary as the latest Clinton-Obama proxy war.
A new poll, commissioned by Jackie Cilley’s campaign and released to the Concord Monitor, indicates she and Maggie Hassan are tied in the race to be the Democratic nominee for governor.
In the survey of likely Democratic primary voters, 20% said if the primary were held today they would vote for Cilley, 20% would vote for Hassan, 10% for Bill Kennedy and 50% don’t know.
Neither Cilley nor Hassan are very well known by Democratic voters. 34% know enough about Hassan to have an opinion. 29% have an opinion about Cilley. Of those who do know both candidates, Cilley leads Hassan by seven points, 46% to 39%.
Nate Silver cautions that you should have a healthy skepticism when evaluating the results from a poll performed for and released by a candidate:
[W]hen an interested party conducts a poll, it is only liable to leak its results to the public if it contains good news for their candidate, thereby encouraging donors, press persons, etc. This does not mean per se that the poll is “biased.” … But it does mean that there may be a bias in which information becomes part of the public record: we learn about a poll that has a candidate ahead by 10 points in a state, but not one where he is down by 2.
The survey of 400 likely 2012 Democratic primary voters was conducted June 11-13, 2012 by Benenson Strategy Group. The margin of error is +/- 4.9%.
A head-to-head gubernatorial survey from Rasmussen Reports has Republicans Ovide Lamontagne and Kevin Smith virtually tied with Democrat Jackie Cilley and only slightly ahead of Maggie Hassan. It’s early — 20% to 25% of likely Granite State voters are undecided or prefer other candidates.
Huffington Post has the topline results, which are only available to Rasmussen subscribers:
Public Policy Polling calls the New Hampshire gubernatorial race a “toss up,” with Democrats Jackie Cilley and Maggie Hassan both basically tied with Republican Ovide Lamontagne.
In the primary battles, Lamontagne has opened up a wide 53-13 lead over challenger Kevin Smith. Hassan leads Cilley 23-20 but PPP says the Democratic primary “looks pretty wide open” with 57% of voters undecided.
Exciting news - President Obama just announced that he supports marriage equality for same-sex couples!This is a historic moment, and I hope that New Hampshire can serve as a model for the rest of the country in acknowledging and celebrating marriage equality. — Ann Kuster, 2nd District Congressional candidate
I thank President Obama for standing up for marriage equality and for what is right. So proud that New Hampshire has been a leader in this fight and that all Granite Staters are free to marry. — Maggie Hassan, Gubernatorial candidate
Wonderful to hear that President Obama supports what we in #NH were proud to establish in 2009 and defend this year, #MarriageEquality — Jackie Cilley, Gubernatorial candidate
Great political courage, and a wonderful statement of support for the American ideal of freedom. New Hampshire Governor John Lynch did it three years ago, Vice President Joe Biden did it three days ago, and now President Barack Obama. “…with liberty and justice for all!” — Jim Splaine, former state Representative
President Obama’s statements this afternoon in support of marriage equality mark a watershed moment in this deeply important civil rights issue. As the highest-ranking openly gay member of the Democratic National Committee, serving as Vice-Chair, I applaud the President’s support for marriage equality and wholeheartedly stand with him and the countless others across New Hampshire and the nation who have fought to ensure equal rights for all. — Ray Buckley, New Hampshire Democratic Party chair
The two major Democratic gubernatorial candidates are leading both Republican opponents in head-to-head match-ups. Today’s WMUR Granite State Poll indicates, though, that all four candidates are relatively unknown and large numbers of voters have yet to decide.
Democrat Maggie Hassand leads Ovide Lamontagne among likely voters by 34%-29% margin with 36% undecided and bests Kevin Smith 29%-24% with 46% undecided. Fellow Democrat Jackie Cilley edges Lamontagne 31%-30% with 38% undecided and leads Smith 30%-23% with 47% undecided.
Andrew Smith, Director of the UNH Survey Center reviews the numbers and concludes, “These candidates are not even very well-known among their own party.” Hassan, Cilley and Smith are unknown to more than 80% of New Hampshire voters. Voters are only slightly more familiar with Lamontagne who is unknown to 54% of voters.
Hassan and Cilley are equally well-known, and well-liked, by Democratic voters. Hassan has a +18% net favorability rating among registered Democrats (20% favorable, 2% unfavorable). Cilley’s favorability rating among Democrats is an almost identical +17% (20% favorable, 3% unfavorable).
Lamontagne has a name recognition advantage over Smith in their battle for the GOP nomination. 39% of registered Republicans have a favorable opinion of Lamontagne compared to 8% who have an unfavorable opinion. Smith is much less well-known, with 9% of Republicans saying they like him and 5% saying they don’t.
The Granite State Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The results are based on telephone interviews of 538 adults with a margin of error of +/- 4.2% and a subsample of 486 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. The survey was conducted on April 9-20, 2012 on landline and cellular telephones.
Reactions to passage of House Bill 1546, which would grant employers with a “religious objection” the right to exclude birth control and contraceptive services from employee medical insurance coverage. The vote was 196-150, more than enough opposition votes to sustain a gubernatorial veto should the Senate concur.
I never thought that in 2012 the New Hampshire Legislature would be debating the use of contraceptives. This issue is settled for Granite Staters. — House Democratic Leader Terie Norelli
Allowing employers to decide what’s best for women’s reproductive health is outrageous. Who can imagine going to a job interview and having to ask a prospective employer whether or not they allow female employees access to contraception? — Laura Thibault, NARAL Pro-Choice NH
My Republicans colleagues are using the banner of religious freedom as a way to mask their blatant attacks on women’s health rights. — Rep. Chris Serlin, Constitutional Review Committee
This is more extreme than any similar proposal anywhere in the country. It turns back the clock on a dozen years of bipartisan support for a law that guarantees women have access to contraception, and all at the taxpayers’ expense. — Jackie Cilley, Democratic gubernatorial candidate
Speaker O’Brien’s Tea Party legislature has ignored the needs of New Hampshire women who simply ask for access to basic health care. This unbelievable assault on women has to stop. — Maggie Hassan, Democratic gubernatorial candidate
Projected Democratic seats: 190
