Huffington Post confirms Sen. Kelly Ayotte undercut efforts by Sen. Marco Rubio to beef up border security measures in the “Gang of Eight” immigration bill. The story validates analysis by WMUR’s James Pindell who called Ayotte’s actions a “political fumble” by a rookie politician.
Ayotte’s announcement that she plans to vote in favor of the immigration overhaul weakens Rubio’s hand at the bargaining table as he attempts to make the bill more palatable for conservatives.
Citing three sources, Huffington Post writers Elise Foley and Sam Stein describe a private conversation between the two senators in which presidential hopeful Rubio asked Ayotte to hold back before announcing her position in favor of the bill:
Rubio had privately urged fellow Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) to remain quiet about her support for immigration reform, in hopes that Senate negotiators would amend the bill’s border security measures to win her vote, according to three sources, including one Republican Senate aide. …
Rubio “has not been telling them to vote no,” said one Senate Democratic aide familiar with negotiations. “He has been apparently holding people back from declaring support for the bill, while at the same time saying the bill needs changes in order to garner support. My understanding is he told Sen. Ayotte’s office to hold back, but she didn’t care.” …
A spokesman for Ayotte flatly denied that such a conversation took place. A spokesman for Rubio said he could not confirm the anecdote.
Ayotte apparent rebuff of Rubio’s request came just days after he came to her defense with a six-figure ad buy when she faced withering criticism over her opposition to expanded background checks for gun purchases.
The announcement by Sen. Kelly Ayotte that she will vote for the “Gang of Eight” immigration bill was a “political fumble” by a rookie politician, writes WMUR’s James Pindell:
Ayotte is playing Candyland while many in the Senate are playing chess. The way Ayotte played it, she did two things damaging politically.
First, she undercut Rubio. Lately Rubio is saying that while he was among those crafting the bill he wants the amendment process to beef up border security measures. Before Ayotte’s announcement Rubio would have had a seat at the table to drive those changes. Now, immigration supporters can tell Rubio to buzz off because they have the 60 votes to do what they want.
Second, by going all in for it, she is now irrelevant in the next few weeks of immigration debate, for a few days of news coverage Sunday and Monday of her decision. If, instead, she said she generally favored the bill, but wanted to watch the amendment process, she would have received the same amount of headlines as a potential 60th vote, but reserved the right to vote against the bill. In that position, Ayotte could have crafted changes in the final bill. …
Now she doesn’t have that option and nor does Rubio.
WMUR’s James Pindell has surveyed all 397 House lawmakers to gauge support for expanded gambling. The result? Too close to call:
The survey suggests that there are so many undecided and so many we haven’t heard back from, that it looks like this vote could go either way. If it doesn’t pass, it could be a tough political loss for freshman Gov. Maggie Hassan, who staked her budget plan on approval.
DECISION VOTE (DEM) VOTE (GOP) VOTE (TOTAL)
Yes 54 49 103
No 54 65 119
Undecided 44 20 64
Not Saying 6 3 9
No Response 60 42 102
TOTAL: 218 179 397
WMUR has the detailed results, including the response from each individual lawmaker.
An explosive email exchange between New Hampshire GOP chair Jennifer Horn and party treasurer Robert Scott has exposed a profoundly dysfunctional party organization.
The email messages, first reported by James Pindell and published in full by Skip Murphy, document a bitter dispute over Horn’s access to party bank accounts.
The messages begin with Scott accusing Horn of reneging on an agreement not to sign checks on the accounts. Scott claimed they reached the agreement after being advised by the party’s counsel, auditor and insurance agent that Horn’s personal financial troubles could become a liability if she had signing authority.
Horn responded to Scott’s message, not by addressing the issue he raised, but by criticizing Scott for “a pattern of continued FEC mistakes” that occurred during his tenure as party treasurer. “I need to hear from you,” she wrote, “as to what you believe is the best course of action to restore the full faith of the Executive Board and the general membership of our party in the office of Treasurer.”
Things quickly went downhill from there. After several messages defending themselves and attacking the other, Scott denounced Horn for her “attempts to threaten, bully and extort” him to prevent him from performing his duties as treasurer:
I am profoundly disturbed by the criminal quality of this entire affair and the personal abuse that I have had to endure in my attempt to protect the best interest of the NHRSC. The recent development of this criminal subculture of bullying and extortion in our organization … must be openly challenged and cannot be allowed to perpetuate.
These criminals (threats and extortion are illegal) and their thuggery has no place in the NHGOP. If we come to accept this type of psychological violence as standard operating procedure in the NHGOP; what is the next logical step? We are the party of Ronald Reagan not Mario Puzo.
When state House Republicans selected Gene Chandler over Pamela Tucker to lead their caucus, WMUR political director James Pindell declared: “The tea party is over:”
The fact that Chandler beat back Pam Tucker, Bill O’Brien’s deputy, to become leader suggests that the House Republican caucus is making a decision that they need a more pragmatic approach to politics. Chandler is a conservative, no doubt, but he is not someone who came into politics through the tea party movement, like so many in the last session.
It appears Pindell’s eulogy for the Tea Party was premature. The evidence is mounting that House Republicans really aren’t interested in “a more pragmatic approach to politics.”
Writing in his blog, Manchester Republican Rep Steve Vaillancourt analyzed major House votes and found that “on roll call vote after roll call vote, Rep. Chandler and his leadership team were on the opposite side of the majority of Republican Representatives, in most cases on the opposite side of 65-75 percent of Republicans.”
“Those in leadership must sacrifice their own views, at least on major issues, or else take a seat at the back of the room,” he warns:
Remember John Dean’s famous admonition to President Richard Nixon, “There’s a cancer growing on the White House.”
As someone who has voted for Gene Chandler for both Speaker and Minority Leader, it’s time somebody warns my friend from Bartlett, “There’s a cancer growing on your leadership team.”
Lincoln stated, “A nation divided against itself cannot stand.”
Republicans need to ask themselves, before we get any further into a session sure to be laced with defeat after defeat, whether a leadership team divided against its party can stand.
Pindell on Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter:
Down. Her vote against the “no budget, no pay” measure was classic Shea-Porter. She chose principle over politics and she is going to pay for that in the next election. (She also doesn’t care.)
Principle over politics. You make the call.
James Pindell says the upcoming legislative session may not be as much fun to watch as the combative session before it, “but it could be one of the more productive ones in a long time:”
Sure there will be disagreements in the next two years, but the disagreements, these leaders say, will be more about policy specifics and less about sweeping differences in ideology.
If this is true it will be more about the traditional “sausage making” of how bills become law than of the partisan fights and state house rallies that marked the last session over issues like gun rights, abortion rights, union rights and gay rights.
The change in tone is in part a reaction to the last term, part the character and political incentives of those in power, and part of it is the political reality of a first-term governor working with the first politically split legislature since the 1990s.
Last week, when state House Republicans selected Gene Chandler over Pamela Tucker to lead their caucus, they chose a former Speaker who was censured for failing to report $64,000 in campaign contributions over Bill O’Brien’s Deputy Speaker.
“I think it’s maybe time for some of us who have been there a while to step back a little bit and let there be a new face for the party,” O’Brien had said when he endorsed Tucker.
“The tea party is over,” wrote WMUR political director James Pindell:
The fact that Chandler beat back Pam Tucker, Bill O’Brien’s deputy, to become leader suggests that the House Republican caucus is making a decision that they need a more pragmatic approach to politics. Chandler is a conservative, no doubt, but he is not someone who came into politics through the tea party movement, like so many in the last session.
In his latest state Senate projections, James Pindell says Democrats are likely to fall short in their bid to win a majority of the 24 seats. The WMUR-TV political director rates 13 seats as likely Republican, seven seats as likely Democratic and four are rated toss-ups.
The toss-ups include open seats in District 9, where New Boston Democrat Lee Nyquist is taking on Bedford Republican Andy Sanborn; Manchester’s District 18, where Democrat Donna Soucy faces Republican J. Gail Barry; and the North Country District 1 race between Democrat Jeff Woodburn and Republican Debi Warner.
Pindell rates the District 7 contest between Democrat Andrew Hosmer and Republican Joshua Youssef, who has been dogged by personal and financial questions, as the most competitive Senate race in the state.
In this analysis ranking the 24 senate races in terms of competitiveness, eight were listed as solid Republican, five were listed leaning Republican, four were tossup, one was a lean Democrat and six were solid Democrat.
The current make-up the Senate is 19 Republicans and 5 Democrats. This latest analysis would mean Democrats would gain at least two seats, but fall short of a majority. The possible range would be in somewhere between 17 Republicans to 7 Democrats and 13 Republicans to 11 Democrats.
Pindell’s projections, ranked in order of competitiveness, follow below the fold.
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James Pindell, WMUR Political Scoop:
Lately, when Republicans win here, it is because the election has been framed about fiscal issues. When Democrats win, it has been about something else, like social issues.
With Ryan’s austere fiscal “roadmap” budget plan, he brings a strong fiscal background to this race, which is something that is likely to play well here. The challenge for Democrats is to either attack that plan as too extreme, or to make this election about something else.
Kevin Landrigan, The Lobby:
Romney’s not going to win New Hampshire because of who he picks as vice president. He’s not going to lose to President Barack Obama because of who he picks as vice president.
Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are going to decide who wins New Hampshire and because New Hampshire’s a big swing state, it’s going to get a lot of attention from both tickets in the general election.
Who is the second banana really isn’t going to matter.
James Pindell caught New Hampshire GOP regional field director Drew Cyr seeking to enlist Keene 912 Tea Party members to help with the fall campaign and asked the obvious question:
Can NH Republicans really complain about Democrats suggesting they are pushing the Tea Party agenda when party staffers go on Tea Party message boards?
Click to enlarge
Projected Democratic seats: 190
