Miscellany Blue - New Hampshire Politics

Mike Huckabee: “That’s Not the Way We Are”

So we don’t have Mike Huckabee to kick around any more. The conventional wisdom had said Huckabee would not be particularly competitive in the New Hampshire presidential primary because there aren’t many evangelicals in the state. But maybe that wasn’t his greatest weakness. Maybe his brand of Republicanism just doesn’t square with the Tea Party/Free Stater GOP crowd that’s calling the shots here now.

This quote from a interview from 2008 can be read as a direct attack on the direction Bill O’Brien and Jack Kimball are taking the New Hampshire GOP: 

The greatest threat to classic Republicanism is not liberalism; it’s this new brand of libertarianism, which is social liberalism and economic conservatism, but it’s a heartless, callous, soulless type of economic conservatism because it says “look, we want to cut taxes and eliminate government. If it means that elderly people don’t get their Medicare drugs, so be it. If it means little kids go without education and healthcare, so be it.” Well, that might be a quote pure economic conservative message, but it’s not an American message. It doesn’t fly. People aren’t going to buy that, because that’s not the way we are as a people.

If Huckabee had run for president this year, would he have confronted New Hampshire’s Tea Party/Free Stater GOP? Will any of the GOP candidates?


ARG: 47% of GOP NH Primary Voters Support Tea Party

In last week’s ARG survey of likely GOP voters in the New Hampshire presidential primary, 47% responded that they consider themselves “supporters” of the Tea Party. An earlier Magellan survey found 58% of likely Granite State GOP primary voters supported the goals of the Tea Party “all” or “most of the time.”

Mitt Romney maintained a similar lead among the Tea Party supporters (30%) and those who said they are not supporters or are undecided (33%). Several other potential candidates, however, displayed a significant difference in support between the two groups. Donald Trump (Tea party supporters: 21%, non-supporters: 14%) and Newt Gingrich (11%, 5%) received significantly more support from Tea Party supporters, while Rudy Giuliani (2%, 14%) and Mike Huckabee (4%, 11%) received more support from those who are not Tea Party supporters.

The results were based on telephone interviews of 600 likely Republican primary voters (422 Republicans and 178 undeclared voters). The survey had a margin of error of +/- 4% at the 95% confidence interval. It was conducted on April 16 - 21, 2011.


ARG Poll: Romney Maintains NH Primary Lead

As GOP presidential wannabes begin to flood the state, Mitt Romney continues to hold a double-digit lead over his nearest competitor in the New Hampshire presidential primary. (Though as I’ve said, it doesn’t matter.)

In a new ARG survey of likely Republican primary voters, Romney leads the field with 32%. Donald Trump is his nearest competitor with 17%. Four others —Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul — trail far behind at 8%.

The rest of the field — Bachmann, Barbour, Cain, Daniels, Huntsman, Johnson, Karger, Palin, Pataki, Rand Paul, Pawlenty, Roemer and Santorum — fails to register more than 1 or 2%.

The results are based on telephone interviews of 600 likely Republican primary voters (422 Republicans and 178 undeclared voters). The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4% at the 95% confidence interval. It was conducted on April 16 - 21, 2011.


GOP Presidential Contenders in a Nutshell

Republican Presidential Conteders (The Ecomomist)

From The Economist.


Gingrich on the 2012 GOP Field

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich handicaps the 2012 GOP presidential field: 

Romney’s the front-runner in fundraising, Palin is the front-runner in celebrity status, and Huckabee is the front-runner in polling data,” Gingrich said. “All three of them should feel pretty good about where they’re positioned right now.”

Regarding his own plans for a presidential run, Gingrich says he is “looking at it very seriously.” Chris Cillizza says:

Make no mistake: Gingrich is running.

Gingrich’s next scheduled visit to New Hampshire is on St. Patrick’s Day for the “Wild Irish Breakfast” charity breakfast in Nashua.


Another NH “Mitt Romney & the Seven Dwarfs” Poll

Public Policy Polling’s Tom Jensen looks at the polling for the New Hampshire presidential primary and says,

"[W]e don’t need another poll showing that Mitt Romney is the mid-30s with everyone else at least 20 points back."

But we’ve got one anyway. Newcomer Strategic National is out with a poll showing just that. Matching earlier surveys from Magellan and PPP, the automated survey of 940 “typical New Hampshire Republican primary voters” give Romney 34% support. The triumvirate of Mike Huckabee (14%), Sarah Palin (13%), and Next Gingrich (9%) make up the second tier. Mitch Daniels (2%), Rick Santorum (1%) Haley Barbour (1%), and John Thune (0%) bring up the rear.

Strategic National has no track record and is not listed in Nate Silver’s pollster ratings. Strategic clients have included Sharron Angle and Christine O’Donnell. The survey was conducted on January 19, 2011, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%.


NH Primary Poll: Mitt Romney & the Seven Dwarfs

Magellan Strategies confirms earlier survey results from Public Policy Polling. Mitt Romney has a big head start in the early jockeying for position in the 2012 New Hampshire Primary.

Romney leads the field among GOP primary voters with 39% support. Sarah Palin (16%), Mike Huckabee (10%), Newt Gingrich (8%), and Ron Paul (7%) are in the middle of the pack. Tim Pawlenty (4%), Rick Santorum (3%) and Haley Barbour (1%) bring up the rear.

Jonathan Chait says, “Who cares?” 

Republican insiders are screwy! I keep saying this: Mitt Romney has a serious flip-flopper problem and a far more serious not-insane-on-health-care problem. He can’t solve the latter without worsening the former. It’s over.

The survey results are based on an autodial survey of 1451 likely Republican primary voters and undeclared voters likely to vote in the 2012 Republican Presidential primary. The interviews were conducted January 4th, 2011. This survey has a margin of error of +/‐ 2.57% at the 95 percent confidence interval.


Public Policy Polling: Huckabee’s the One

Tom Jensen, Director of Public Policy Polling, takes a look at the potential GOP presidential candidates and concludes Mike Huckabee has the best chance of beating Barack Obama.

Jensen first notes a fresh face would be an even better pick as the leading candidates all have high negatives. 

Romney, Huckabee, Palin, and Gingrich’s problem isn’t that they’re unknown. They’ve all been in the national spotlight before and they all had at least 75% name recognition on our most recent national poll. Their problem is that folks do know them- and they don’t like them. Once that bad impression’s been made it’s hard to make a different one.

Jensen concedes it is likely that one of the four leading candidates will be the Republican nominee. And if that’s the case, he says Huckabee is the Republican’s best candidate.

Huckabee’s the only one of the top Republicans who has the combination of electability and base appeal it’s going to take to beat Barack Obama. Romney has the electability but not the base appeal, Palin has the base appeal but not the electability, and Gingrich sort of falls in the middle on both counts. A lot will change over the course of 2011 but at least based on the information we have so far Huckabee looks like the GOP’s best bet.


NH Primary Poll: Mitt Romney & the Seven Dwarfs

Public Policy Polling confirms Mitt Romney has a big head start in the early jockeying for position in the 2012 New Hampshire Primary. Romney leads the field among GOP primary voters with 40% support. Mike Huckabee (13%), Newt Gingrich (10%) and Sarah Palin (10%) are in the middle of the pack. Tim Pawlenty (4%), Mike Pence (3%), Mitch Daniels (1%) and John Thune (1%) bring up the rear.

What does it mean? Not much.

PPP surveyed 1,308 likely 2010 New Hampshire voters, including 582 typical Republican primary voters, October 27 - 29, for a +/- 2.7% margin of error for the entire sample, and +/- 4.1% for the GOP primary sample.


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