Bill O’Brien launches congressional campaign by misreading results from landmark Medicaid study

In a statement released by the O’Brien for Congress campaign, former state House Speaker Bill O’Brien blasted Congresswoman Ann Kuster for not voting to repeal the Affordable Care Act.

“If fully implemented, Obamacare will hijack and wreck not only the finances of the federal government, but also our state’s finances,” he wrote. O’Brien also took the opportunity to trash Medicaid. Obamacare “will throw millions of Americans on Medicaid,” he complained:

Medicaid relies on substantial contributions from local taxpayers, yet it doesn’t even pay for half the cost of service to its recipients. It does all of this — or, none of this rather — while failing to provide better health outcomes than being uninsured, according to a study of Medicaid expansion in Oregon.

About that Medicaid study.

O’Brien was referring to the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment, a landmark, randomized study of the effect expanding public health insurance has on the health care use, health outcomes, financial strain, and well-being of low-income adults.

O’Brien cherry picked the early results to declare Medicaid a failure. Ezra Klein explains the results of the study, so far, are decidedly more encouraging:

So here’s what happened in the first two years of the Oregon Medicaid experiment: Medicaid proved itself good health insurance. The people who got Medicaid used more health care, and seem to have done so smartly — they got preventive care, they got their diabetes diagnosed and began managing it, they treated their depression, and so on. But the health care itself didn’t work as well as we hoped — at least not in terms of cutting rates of hypertension and cholesterol. …

We don’t know why hypertension and cholesterol levels were unchanged, writes Klein. “We don’t know if the results speak to the health care you get through all health insurance or just Medicaid or if they’re just an artifact of the study’s timeframe and sample size,” he explained.

Regardless, Klein notes there is “voluminous evidence that managing diabetes and treating depression and being able to go to the doctor improves health. You have to be willing to throw quite a lot of existing theory and evidence out the window to believe that stuff won’t pay off down the road.”

Bill O’Brien on Bill O’Brien: ‘He’s a crazy. He’s gotta go’

Former state House Speaker Bill O’Brien, who has formed an exploratory committee to run for Congress in New Hampshire’s 2nd District, gazes into his crystal ball and imagines his future as a Congressman:

I’ll get down there. I’ll take a vote on one or two bills like that and they’ll say, “He’s a crazy. He’s gotta go.” And I’ll go.

h/t: GraniteGrok

Portsmouth Herald: ‘O’Brien for Congress is a bad joke’

An editorial in the Portsmouth Herald doesn’t mince words. The paper says the announcement by former state House Speaker Bill O’Brien that he is considering a run for Congress in the 2nd district “is a bad joke:”

O’Brien’s two years as N.H. speaker were some of the most divisive, spiteful and unproductive in recent memory.

As House speaker: he pushed gun laws that would allow felons and the mentally ill to possess weapons in their homes; he tried unsuccessfully to repeal same-sex marriage, which is now the law of the land in New Hampshire and is poised to gain further federal recognition; he worked hard to take away women’s hard-won legal reproductive rights; and he treated with contempt not just Democrats but members of his own party who didn’t drink the same Kool-Aid he was drinking.

O’Brien’s possible candidacy for the Second District Congressional seat serves as a litmus test for whether Republicans learned any lessons in the 2012 elections. Clearly, if he’s nominated, it will be proof that the N.H. GOP didn’t hear the voters’ clear message.

Kuster charts a ‘bipartisan’ course

2nd District Congresswoman Ann Kuster is one of six House Agriculture Committee Democrats who voted with the Republican majority and approved legislation last week that would deregulate Wall Street derivatives.

Huffington Post reports the proposed legislation “would expand taxpayer support for derivatives and create broad new trading loopholes allowing banks to shirk risk management standards created by the 2010 Dodd-Frank bill:”

Prior to the vote, the top Democrat on the Agricultural Committee, Rep. Collin Peterson (D-Minn.), gave a speech warning that the legislation could repeat the deregulation debacles of the 1990s.

“You’re putting taxpayers on the hook…. At the time we did the Modernization Act, there were $80 billion in swaps, in derivatives. We gave ‘em legal certainty, we eliminated the regulation requirements, and it went to $700 trillion and it blew up on us. So just be careful: You can vote any way you want, but this could come back and haunt you.”

Kuster’s vote repeats a pattern of siding with House Republicans on key legislation.

Kuster, who represents the more Democratic of the the state’s two congressional districts, was one of 86 Democrats who crossed party lines in January and supported a Republican measure that tied a raise in the debt ceiling to congressional pay.

Kuster said she voted for the measure to “remove the immediate threat of default and ensure that America will continue to meet its obligations.” 1st District Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter voted against the bill. “The debt ceiling should not be tied to any political issue, no matter how desirable the goal may be,” she explained.

In February, Kuster again split with Shea-Porter and joined 43 Democrats who voted with the Republican majority to block a 0.5% pay raise for federal workers. “Leadership should concentrate on closing loopholes and reforming the tax code instead of shrinking middle class wages,” said Shea-Porter.

In a series of budget votes last week, Kuster was one of 35 Democrats who crossed the aisle and voted against the Senate Democratic budget and one of 28 who voted against the House Democratic budget. Kuster said the budget proposals did not “reflect the type of bipartisan compromise that New Hampshire families expect and deserve.”

Shea-Porter supported the Democratic budgets, noting they would “protect the middle class by investing in things like education, transportation, and research and development” and would “reduce the deficit in a balanced manner that closes tax loopholes, replaces sequestration’s irresponsible cuts, keeps our commitment to seniors, and cuts spending through a targeted and steady approach.“

O’Brien signals interest in congressional race

Former state House Speaker Bill O’Brien is considering a race for the 2nd District congressional seat held by Democrat Ann Kuster.

O’Brien insists his controversial two-year stint presiding over the House will not be an impediment, despite the fact that Democrats made him the focus of their successful campaign to regain control of the House.

“I have a lot of folks who come up to me and say we really appreciate what you did,” he told National Journal’s Kevin Brennan.

In fact, O’Brien claims other Republicans would stay out of the race if he runs, telling Brennan, “I think I can clear the field.”

Just in case, however, O’Brien wasted no time in attacking former state Sen. Gary Lambert (R-Nashua) who has also signaled interest in the race:

O’Brien called Lambert “a good man and an honorable public servant,” but he said the former state senator has taken positions which could prove problematic in a potential GOP primary, specifically citing Lambert’s vote to keep the state’s cap-and-trade initiative in place and his support for a plan to extend commuter rails from Boston to New Hampshire. “One wonders if it’s only because he has a law office in Boston,” O’Brien said.

Sabato rating: NH1 toss-up, NH2 leans Democratic

In its debut House ratings for the 2014 cycle, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball identifies New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District as one of just seven toss-up races.

That’s an improvement for Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter. In ratings updated just before the 2012 election, editor Kyle Kondik handicapped the race as “Leans Republican” and wrote that he favored incumbent Frank Guinta to “hang on” against Shea-Porter.

Congresswoman Ann Kuster is also listed as one of the 69 House members who is, at least potentially, vulnerable. The state’s 2nd Congressional District is rated as “Leans Democratic.”

Lambert “thinking about running” for Congress

Lest anyone wonder why former state Sen. Gary Lambert attacked Congresswoman Ann Kuster today, he made it clear. “I am thinking of running” for her seat, he told The Hill. “I’ll be retiring on June 4, 2014, and I’d like to get back into politics when I retire.”

Kuster kicks off 2014 campaign

Days after the 113th Congress was sworn in, the National Republican Campaign Committee identified 45 Democratic-held House seats as “potential targets” for Republican takeover in 2014. Both of New Hampshire’s seats were included.

Second district Congresswoman Annie Kuster wasted no time in responding. In a fundraising appeal, she asked supporters to help her kick off the 2014 campaign:

The NRCC announced Annie as one of their top 2014 targets. Stand with Annie while she is in Congress standing up for us. … Help us kick off the 2014 campaign today!

Friends of Democracy hammers Bass in final push

Friends of Democracy today launched the final salvo of their campaign to unseat New Hampshire Congressman Charlie Bass. The $363,000 campaign has targeted nearly 8% of likely voters in the state’s 2nd Congressional District with television ads, phone calls to over 28,000 independent voters, eight direct mail pieces and online ads.

Friends of Democracy, co-founded by Jonathan Soros, is dedicated to making elected officials more responsive to constituents and less beholden to special interests. New Hampshire’s 2nd District is one of eleven House districts in which the organization is working to defeat incumbents who oppose campaign finance reform.

“The crystal clear lesson from this election is that voters have had it with the pay-to-play culture that has ruled Washington for so long,” said co-director and co-founder Ilyse Hogue. “From voting with his insurance industry donors to using his political access to enrich himself and family members, Rep. Bass represents an old way of doing business that doesn’t work for New Hampshire and doesn’t work for our country.”

Rothenberg Report: N.H. House races “Pure Toss-Up”

The Rothenberg Political Report, a non-partisan newsletter covering campaigns and politics, changed its ratings for both New Hampshire congressional contests today to “Pure Toss-Up.”

The 1st District rematch between Congressman Frank Guinta and Democrat Carol Shea-Porter had been rated “Toss-Up/Tilt Republican.” The 2nd District race between Congressman Charlie Bass and Democrat Annie Kuster had been rated “Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat.”

Rothenberg Report projects a Democratic gain of two to eight U.S. House seats, short of the 25 seat pickup they need for a majority.

Split decision for N.H. congressional delegation?

New Hampshire voters have not sent a Democrat and a Republican to the U.S. House in the same election since 1992, when the 1st District elected Republican Bill Zeliff and the 2nd District chose Democrat Dick Swett. But today, two national observers said that is a distinct possibility this year.

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball makes a call in every single House race before Election Day. Editor Kyle Kondik made picks in their 14 remaining toss-up seats today, changing the rating for the 1st District to “Leans Republican” and the 2nd District to “Leans Democratic:”

New Hampshire’s schizophrenic politics makes deciphering elections there quite difficult, and the very close presidential and gubernatorial races are providing little top-of-the-ticket evidence of a partisan lean one way or the other in the Granite State. For most of the cycle, it has appeared that Rep. Charlie Bass (R, NH-2) was in worse shape than Rep. Frank Guinta (R, NH-1), and that in addition to the district fundamentals (Bass’s district is more Democratic than the first) is why we favor Bass to lose to Ann McLane Kuster (D) but Guinta to hang on against ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D).

Meanwhile, Roll Call’s Abby Livingston claimed “Democrats are more confident about their prospects in the 2nd district, while Republicans are more upbeat about holding the 1st district:”

The reasons that many Granite State political observers are preparing for a split delegation are plenty. There is no national wave; as House race veterans, the candidates are already well-known and defined; both parties are overloading the television airwaves with political advertising; and polling indicates the presidential race is tightening.

Republicans are confident Romney will win Guinta’s 1st district, and Democrats share a similar confidence that Obama will carry Bass’ 2nd district.

In the 1st district especially, it is hard to imagine much crossover voting. Guinta and Shea Porter are often described as fierce partisans, and as a result, this is a district where the presidential contest will matter more than most.

Writing in the Guardian, Harry J. Enten is not convinced:

Any combination of House winners seem possible. Democrats could win both seats, Republicans could win both seats, Guinta could win but see Bass lose, or Shea-Porter could win with Kuster losing.

Kuster ‘a compassionate force for sensible policies’

Today, the Keene Sentinel endorsed Democrat Ann Kuster over Congressman Charlie Bass for the 2nd District Congressional seat. “Kuster will stand in Washington as a compassionate force for sensible policies rooted in a deep understanding of the issues facing Americans today,” the editors wrote.

Kuster supports reforming the Medicare system by changing the financially inexpedient way care is paid for under the health insurance plan for seniors, while Bass has voiced consideration for a proposal known as “premium support” that could otherwise be described as a voucher system, giving seniors money to shop for health care in the private market.

Meanwhile, Bass wants to continue with the failed idea that keeping taxes low for the wealthiest will eventually spur economic recovery, while Kuster supports ending tax cuts for the richest Americans to help restore a thriving middle class.

It is the wide gulf between the policy agendas of the two candidates that most heavily influenced our decision to endorse Ann McLane Kuster for the 2nd District post.