New Hampshire Senatorial candidate Rep. Paul Hodes was on Hardball tonight taking softballs from Chris Matthews. Hodes focuses his attack on an email from former attorney general Kelly Ayotte discussing her decision to put a killer to death within the context of her political career.
Republican Senatorial candidate Kelly Ayotte maintains a 7-point lead in her race against Democrat Rep. Paul Hodes in New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate race. Today’s Rasmussen Reports survey has Ayotte leading Hodes 51% - 44% among likely voters, with 2% undecided. This is the same margin measured by Rasmussen last month.
Political scientists have measured a Republican house effect in surveys from Rasmussen Reports. House effect is defined as systematic differences in the the way that the surveys tend to lean toward Republican or Democratic candidates. Nate Silver has calculated a 5.5 point Republican-leaning Rasmussen house effect in head-to-head Senate races.
The telephone survey of 750 Likely Voters in New Hampshire was conducted on October 10, 2010. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
“It could very well be that foreign money’s coming in to try to trample the voice of democracy. That’s a sad state of affairs. Kelly Ayotte now has the endorsement of the Chamber of Commerce, the duplicitous, hypocritical Chamber of Commerce. She’s happy to accept their endorsement. She should call on them to disclose who’s behind them or call on them to take their ads down.”
—Rep. Paul Hodes on the U.S. Chamber of Commerce spending $1 million in support of his opponent, Kelly Ayotte
In a fundraising letter supporting U.S. Senatorial candidate Rep. Paul Hodes, former DNC chairman and presidential candidate Howard Dean attacks Sarah Palin and the “extreme candidates” she supports — like Kelly Ayotte.
I have been in politics for a long time now and I have never seen more extreme candidates than the ones being pushed today by Sarah Palin.
They’re not just attacking the work President Obama has done — they’re attacking our social safety net and the building blocks of the modern middle class. They want to kill Social Security and Medicare, abolish the minimum wage and end unemployment assistance. Some have even questioned basic civil rights.
Just last month, Ayotte won a hard-fought primary after winning Palin’s endorsement. She calls herself a “moderate” but she has the support of right-wing Republicans and she’d vote lockstep with Mitch McConnell and Jim DeMint in the United States Senate.
Republican former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte has been a target from the moment she got into the race. She’s Establishment Republicans, conservatives, her primary opponents, and Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes have all aimed their arrows at her. Still, Ayotte has managed to survive, maintaining a net favorable rating and a lead in the polls.
—Charlie Cook, “the Picasso of election analysis”
In nine days, Rep. Paul Hodes has cut Republican Kelly Ayotte’s lead for the U.S. Senate seat from 14 points to five — if you believe the American Research Group poll out today.
In a survey of 600 likely New Hampshire voters, Republican Ayotte holds a 47% - 42% over Democrat Hodes. ARG’s last poll, just nine days ago, had Ayotte up by a 46% - 32% margin.
Ayotte continues to maintain a large advantage with Undeclared voters but her 50% - 35% margin actually represents an 11-point improvement for Hodes who trailed Undeclared 50% - 24% in the previous survey.
ARG also measures a 13-point swing among women voters with Hodes now holding a nine point lead (49% - 41%) after trailing 30% - 45% last week.
The results are based on telephone interviews of 600 likely voters. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4% at the 95% confidence interval. The poll was conducted on October 3-5, 2010.
I’ll let Swing State Project have the last word:
Wow! Wild fluctuation in an ARG poll! I’m sure that’s never happened before!
Chris Cillizza updates his U.S. Senate projections and moves three seats in the Republicans’ direction, including the New Hampshire race for Judd Gregg’s seat.
In New Hampshire, former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) appears to have quickly put her narrow primary win behind her and united the GOP. Polling suggests that she has a comfortable lead over Rep. Paul Hodes (D). The contest moves from “Toss Up” to “Lean Republican”.
Cillizza also updated the West Virginia battle between Democrat Gov. Joe Manchin and Republican John Raese to “Toss Up” and the Wisconsin race between Republican Ron Johnson and Democrat Sen. Russ Feingold to “Lean Republican”.
The Washington Post reports interest groups are spending five times as much on this year’s congressional elections as they did just four years ago. And most of that money is being spent by right-wing groups who are outspending the Democrat-leaning organizations by a 7 to 1 margin.
Nowhere is this lopsided nature of the post-Citizens United, new world order more apparent than New Hampshire, where Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Paul Hodes has been outspent 19-1, including over $1.3 million from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Republican Kelly Ayotte’s behalf. 1st District Congressional Rep. Carol Shea-Porter has been outspent over $300,000 to zero! Only 2nd District Congressional candidate Ann Kuster has held her own, though a much smaller amount of independent money has been raised for that race.
The Post has some nifty interactive graphics to track all the spending by interest groups and political parties. Here are the details from the three New Hampshire congressional races:
NH Senate
Interest groups and political parties have reported spending $3,367,329 on independent campaigning in the New Hampshire Senate race this year, with $3,200,152 benefiting Republicans and $167,177 benefiting Democrats.
Interest groups and political parties have reported spending $337,256 on independent campaigning in New Hampshire’s 1st congressional district this year, with $337,256 benefiting Republicans and $0 benefiting Democrats.
Interest groups and political parties have reported spending $24,142 on independent campaigning in New Hampshire’s 2nd congressional district this year, with $13 benefiting Republicans and $24,129 benefiting Democrats.
The charts will be updated each Tuesday through Election Day.
Republican Kelly Ayotte has widened her lead over Democrat Rep. Paul Hodes in the campaign for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Sen Judd Gregg in the latest WMUR Granite State Poll.
Ayotte leads Hodes among likely voters 50% - 35% with 12% undecided. In July, Ayotte held a 8-point lead (45% - 37%) over Hodes. Ayotte’s net favorability rating is +12% (41% - 29%) compared to a -10% rating (29% - 39%) for Hodes.
The Granite State Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The results are based on telephone interviews of 515 adults and have a margin of error of +/- 4.3% and included a subsample of 472 likely voters with a +/-4.5% margin of error. The survey was conducted on September 23-29, 2010.
The American Crossroads ad accusing Democratic Senatorial candidate Rep. Paul Hodes of voting for “$1.9 million to study ants in Africa” and “$39 million for office upgrades for politicians” is barely true. That’s the judgement of Politifact, the Pulitzer Prize winning, fact checking project of the St. Petersburg (FL) Times.
It’s true that Hodes voted for the [stimulus] bill, but at the time he had no way of knowing that those particular projects would be funded. It is a stretch to say that he voted for “$1.9 million to study ants in Africa,” because he voted to add $3 billion in funding for the National Science Foundation. Its explanation of “$39 million for office upgrades for politicians” also leaves out significant details. It’s a bond program, not a direct subsidy, and the money supports a large historical renovation, not simply “office upgrades for politicians.” So we rate the ad’s statement Barely True.
Politifact’s Barely True rating designates a statement that contains some element of truth but ignores critical facts that would give a different impression.
American Crossroads, the Karl Rove-backed billionaires club, is spending $643,000 on the attack ad.
In a survey of 800 likely New Hampshire voters, Republican Senatorial candidate Kelly Ayotte has taken a 14 point lead over Democrat Rep. Paul Hodes according to an American Research Group poll out today.
Ayotte has a whopping 52% - 24% lead with Undeclared voters who represent 38% of the sample.
Among women voters, a group traditionally favoring Democratic candidates, Ayotte maintains a 45% - 30% lead.
The results are based on telephone interviews of 800 likely voters. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.5% at the 95% confidence interval. The survey was conducted on September 22-26, 2010.
The Professional Fire Fighters of New Hampshire today endorsed Rep. Paul Hodes for the U.S. Senate. The Fire Fighters are one of the state’s most important and politically active unions.
The Fire Fighters backed Hodes opponent, Republican Kelly Ayotte in the GOP Senate primary and endorsed Republican incumbent Sen. Judd Gregg in the 2004 general election for the Senate seat.
David Lang, President of the Professional Fire Fighters:
The firefighters and paramedics that we represent, fight to protect the citizens of New Hampshire each and every day. We have a special relationship with them. We know that Paul Hodes joins us in fighting hard to protect middle class jobs and the citizens in this state.”
A progressive perspective on New Hampshire politics and other oddities.
William Tucker is an architect in Portsmouth.
Projected Democratic seats: 190
