Roll Call: Frank Guinta ‘interested’ in U.S. Senate race

Publicly, 1st District Congressman Frank Guinta professes to be weighing his electoral options following his four point loss to Democrat Carol Shea-Porter. Privately, he appears to be greasing the skids for a U.S. Senate run against Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.

Roll Call has the story:

“My name comes up for Senate, House and governor,” Guinta told Roll Call Thursday in a phone interview. “Obviously, it’s nice to be thought of in that way. Quite frankly, at this point, it’s something that I will focus on sometime next year.”

But two well-placed New Hampshire GOP sources noted that Guinta, the former mayor of Manchester, expressed a particular interest in the Senate race….

Guinta emphasized that he thought it was too early to select a race, but said he plans to “see how things play out and keep options open.”

“I’m certainly going to take some time in 2013 to assess and make a determination at some point if I would run,” Guinta said.

Split decision for N.H. congressional delegation?

New Hampshire voters have not sent a Democrat and a Republican to the U.S. House in the same election since 1992, when the 1st District elected Republican Bill Zeliff and the 2nd District chose Democrat Dick Swett. But today, two national observers said that is a distinct possibility this year.

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball makes a call in every single House race before Election Day. Editor Kyle Kondik made picks in their 14 remaining toss-up seats today, changing the rating for the 1st District to “Leans Republican” and the 2nd District to “Leans Democratic:”

New Hampshire’s schizophrenic politics makes deciphering elections there quite difficult, and the very close presidential and gubernatorial races are providing little top-of-the-ticket evidence of a partisan lean one way or the other in the Granite State. For most of the cycle, it has appeared that Rep. Charlie Bass (R, NH-2) was in worse shape than Rep. Frank Guinta (R, NH-1), and that in addition to the district fundamentals (Bass’s district is more Democratic than the first) is why we favor Bass to lose to Ann McLane Kuster (D) but Guinta to hang on against ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D).

Meanwhile, Roll Call’s Abby Livingston claimed “Democrats are more confident about their prospects in the 2nd district, while Republicans are more upbeat about holding the 1st district:”

The reasons that many Granite State political observers are preparing for a split delegation are plenty. There is no national wave; as House race veterans, the candidates are already well-known and defined; both parties are overloading the television airwaves with political advertising; and polling indicates the presidential race is tightening.

Republicans are confident Romney will win Guinta’s 1st district, and Democrats share a similar confidence that Obama will carry Bass’ 2nd district.

In the 1st district especially, it is hard to imagine much crossover voting. Guinta and Shea Porter are often described as fierce partisans, and as a result, this is a district where the presidential contest will matter more than most.

Writing in the Guardian, Harry J. Enten is not convinced:

Any combination of House winners seem possible. Democrats could win both seats, Republicans could win both seats, Guinta could win but see Bass lose, or Shea-Porter could win with Kuster losing.

Roll Call: Charlie Bass one of ten ‘most vulnerable’

Roll Call names 2nd District Congressman Charlie Bass one of the ten most vulnerable members of Congress.

Bass is a veteran of competitive races and the wave elections of 2006 and 2010 — the years he got swept out of and then back into Congress. This year there is no political tide moving in one direction and Bass’ political skills will be tested in a neutral environment. His district favors Democrats, making him a top target from the very beginning of the cycle. He faces a rematch from 2010 with Ann McLane Kuster, who never stopped running after her loss two years ago. Much has been written about the demise of the New England Republican. Next month, Bass wants to prove the old Mark Twain adage true.

Roll Call on NH01: From ‘Leans Republican’ to ‘Tossup’

Roll Call today took note of President Obama’s electoral gains in the Granite State and changed its rating for the 1st District rematch between Congressman Frank Guinta and Carol Shea-Porter from “Leans Republican” to “Tossup:”

Rep. Frank Guinta (R) has the more conservative Granite State seat, and even Democrats concede that his rival, former Rep. Carol Shea Porter (D), is not the strongest candidate for this district. But President Barack Obama is beginning to outpace Mitt Romney statewide and it is hard to see voters crossing the ballot in either direction in this House race.

Roll Call: Bass “Among the Most Imperiled”

Roll Call lists 2nd District Rep. Charlie Bass as one of the ten most vulnerable members of Congress in his bid for re-election.

After riding the Democratic wave out of office in 2006 and then riding the GOP wave back in 2010, Bass is no stranger to competitive races. The question is whether the affable lawmaker can stay on his board when the water is flat. Both 2006 and 2010 were midterm elections, and Bass will have the drag of the presidential race in a Democratic district to contend with in November. Democrats have a strong recruit in Ann McLane Kuster — who probably would have won last cycle if not for the wave conditions.