“I live on the Gulf Coast. We put up with hurricanes all the time. In 1900, before FEMA, the local people rebuilt the city, built a seawall, and they survived without FEMA. … There’s no magic about FEMA. More people are starting to recognize that. They’re a great contributor to deficit financing and quite frankly they don’t have a penny in the bank.”
— Rep. Ron Paul, in Gilford, New Hampshire, on why a national response to Hurricane Irene is unnecessary.
In the first survey of likely primary voters since Gov. Rick Perry entered the race, Mitt Romney maintains an 18-point lead over his nearest competitor in the New Hampshire presidential primary.
36% of those surveyed by Magellan Strategies say if the election were held today, they would vote for Romney. Rick Perry (18%), Ron Paul (14%) and Michele Bachmann (10%) trail.
8/11 6/11 1/11 Mitt Romney ............. 36% 42% 39% Rick Perry .............. 18% Ron Paul ................ 14% 10% 7% Michele Bachmann ........ 10% 10% Herman Cain ............. 3% 4% Other ................... 3% 4% Jon Huntsman ............ 3% 3% Newt Gingrich ........... 2% 3% 8% Rick Santorum ........... 1% 2% 3% Undecided ............... 10% 8% 8%
Romney has also maintained his high favorabilty rating (66% favorable / 24% unfavorable). Of all the remaining candidates, only Rick Perry (51% / 27%), Michele Bachmann (49% / 39%) and Herman Cain (36% / 34%) have net positive favorability ratings.
The survey results are based on an autodial survey of 613 likely Republican primary voters and undeclared voters likely to vote in the 2012 Republican Presidential primary. The interviews were conducted August 15-16, 2011. This survey has a margin of error of +/‐ 3.96% at the 95 percent confidence interval.
Topline results and crosstabs below the fold.
The New Hampshire Tea Party folks (about 150 of them) got together yesterday for a little politicking. The straw poll held at the Coalition of New Hampshire Taxpayers’ annual picnic is an indication of who’s winning the hearts and minds of the GOP’s extreme right-wing activists. This year, as if to prove their irrelevance, they’re supporting Ron Paul and Rick Santorum.
Ron Paul 63 (39%)
Rick Santorum 20 (12%)
Michele Bachmann 17 (11%)
Herman Cain 17 (11%)
Mitt Romney 14 (9%)
Tim Pawlenty 12 (7%)
Gary Johnson 11 (7%)
Thaddeus McCotter 3 (2%)
Rick Perry (write-in) 2 (1%)
Jon Huntsman 1 (1%)
Alan Keyes (write-in) 1 (1%)
Mitt Romney continues to maintain his front-runner position in the New Hampshire GOP presidential primary in a new survey from Magellan Strategies. 42% of those surveyed say if the election were held today, they would vote for Romney. His closest competitors are Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann with 10% each.
Compared to an earlier survey from Magellan, Romney has about the same level of support as he had at the beginning of the year. Michelle Bachmann, who was not included in the January poll, has gained the most, while support for Palin and Gingrich has dropped significantly.
Mitt Romney: 42% (January 2011: 39%)
Ron Paul: 10% (7%)
Michele Bachmann: 10% (n/a)
Sarah Palin 7% (16%)
Rudy Giuliani 6% (n/a)
Tim Pawlenty: 5% (4%)
Herman Cain: 4% (n/a)
Newt Gingrich: 3% (8%)
Jon Huntsman: 3% (n/a)
Rick Santorum: 2% (3%)
A finding that could play a a significant role in the primary results is that just 63% of these likely voters self-identify as conservative on most issues. 32% identify themselves as moderate and 4% liberal. 72% of the Republicans said they are conservative compared to just 39% of Independents. Undeclared voters, those who are not registered as Republicans or Democrats, are eligible to vote in the GOP primary.
The survey results are based on an autodial survey of 727 likely Republican primary voters and undeclared voters likely to vote in the 2012 Republican Presidential primary. The interviews were conducted June 14-15, 2011. This survey has a margin of error of +/‐ 3.63% at the 95 percent confidence interval.
Newt Gingrich suggests bringing back literacy tests (outlawed by 1965 Voting Rights Act):
“You know, folks often talk about immigration. I always say that to become an American citizen, immigrants ought to have to learn American history. But maybe we should also have a voting standard that says to vote, as a native born American, you should have to learn American history. You realize how many of our high school graduates because of the decay of the educational system, couldn’t pass a citizenship test.”
Ron Paul on why he would not have voted for Civil Rights Act of 1964:
Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul told Chris Mathews on MSNBC Friday that he would not have voted in favor of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, if he were a member of congress at the time. Though Paul said that while he thought Jim Crow laws were illegal, he would have opposed the Civil Rights Act “because of the property rights element, not because they got rid of the Jim Crow laws.”
As GOP presidential wannabes begin to flood the state, Mitt Romney continues to hold a double-digit lead over his nearest competitor in the New Hampshire presidential primary. (Though as I’ve said, it doesn’t matter.)
In a new ARG survey of likely Republican primary voters, Romney leads the field with 32%. Donald Trump is his nearest competitor with 17%. Four others —Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul — trail far behind at 8%.
The rest of the field — Bachmann, Barbour, Cain, Daniels, Huntsman, Johnson, Karger, Palin, Pataki, Rand Paul, Pawlenty, Roemer and Santorum — fails to register more than 1 or 2%.
The results are based on telephone interviews of 600 likely Republican primary voters (422 Republicans and 178 undeclared voters). The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4% at the 95% confidence interval. It was conducted on April 16 - 21, 2011.
Much is being made of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney’s straw poll win in yesterday’s GOP state party gathering. Romney won 35% of the votes cast and easily surpassed his nearest rivals: Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty and Sarah Palin. But a close look at the numbers may be cause for concern in the Romney camp.
Romney’s path to victory in the New Hampshire presidential primary is to nail down the party establishment support while the rest of the pack fights for support from the party’s ascendant Tea Party wing. In a gathering of over 420 of New Hampshire’s most engaged GOP party activists, less than 100 were willing to express support for Romney.
The 150 committee members who sat on their hands and chose not to vote speaks volumes.
Magellan Strategies confirms earlier survey results from Public Policy Polling. Mitt Romney has a big head start in the early jockeying for position in the 2012 New Hampshire Primary.
Romney leads the field among GOP primary voters with 39% support. Sarah Palin (16%), Mike Huckabee (10%), Newt Gingrich (8%), and Ron Paul (7%) are in the middle of the pack. Tim Pawlenty (4%), Rick Santorum (3%) and Haley Barbour (1%) bring up the rear.
Jonathan Chait says, “Who cares?”
Republican insiders are screwy! I keep saying this: Mitt Romney has a serious flip-flopper problem and a far more serious not-insane-on-health-care problem. He can’t solve the latter without worsening the former. It’s over.
The survey results are based on an autodial survey of 1451 likely Republican primary voters and undeclared voters likely to vote in the 2012 Republican Presidential primary. The interviews were conducted January 4th, 2011. This survey has a margin of error of +/‐ 2.57% at the 95 percent confidence interval.
Much has been written analyzing the Public Policy Polling survey results of the New Hampshire Senate race. Much less has been written concerning the survey results for the 2012 GOP New Hampshire Primary. Republican bad boy David Frum steps in to fill the void and finds some interesting data.
The horse race standings are pretty much as expected, with Mitt Romney leading the way:
31% Mitt Romney
14% Newt Gingrich
13% Ron Paul
12% Mike Huckabee
9% Sarah Palin
3% Tim Pawlenty
1% Mitch Daniels.
But Frum peers under the covers and finds some interesting nuggets.
A progressive perspective on New Hampshire politics and other oddities.
William Tucker is an architect in Portsmouth.
Projected Democratic seats: 190
