Mitt Romney continues to maintain his front-runner position in the New Hampshire GOP presidential primary in a new survey from Magellan Strategies. 42% of those surveyed say if the election were held today, they would vote for Romney. His closest competitors are Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann with 10% each.
Compared to an earlier survey from Magellan, Romney has about the same level of support as he had at the beginning of the year. Michelle Bachmann, who was not included in the January poll, has gained the most, while support for Palin and Gingrich has dropped significantly.
Mitt Romney: 42% (January 2011: 39%)
Ron Paul: 10% (7%)
Michele Bachmann: 10% (n/a)
Sarah Palin 7% (16%)
Rudy Giuliani 6% (n/a)
Tim Pawlenty: 5% (4%)
Herman Cain: 4% (n/a)
Newt Gingrich: 3% (8%)
Jon Huntsman: 3% (n/a)
Rick Santorum: 2% (3%)
A finding that could play a a significant role in the primary results is that just 63% of these likely voters self-identify as conservative on most issues. 32% identify themselves as moderate and 4% liberal. 72% of the Republicans said they are conservative compared to just 39% of Independents. Undeclared voters, those who are not registered as Republicans or Democrats, are eligible to vote in the GOP primary.
The survey results are based on an autodial survey of 727 likely Republican primary voters and undeclared voters likely to vote in the 2012 Republican Presidential primary. The interviews were conducted June 14-15, 2011. This survey has a margin of error of +/‐ 3.63% at the 95 percent confidence interval.
In last week’s ARG survey of likely GOP voters in the New Hampshire presidential primary, 47% responded that they consider themselves “supporters” of the Tea Party. An earlier Magellan survey found 58% of likely Granite State GOP primary voters supported the goals of the Tea Party “all” or “most of the time.”
Mitt Romney maintained a similar lead among the Tea Party supporters (30%) and those who said they are not supporters or are undecided (33%). Several other potential candidates, however, displayed a significant difference in support between the two groups. Donald Trump (Tea party supporters: 21%, non-supporters: 14%) and Newt Gingrich (11%, 5%) received significantly more support from Tea Party supporters, while Rudy Giuliani (2%, 14%) and Mike Huckabee (4%, 11%) received more support from those who are not Tea Party supporters.
The results were based on telephone interviews of 600 likely Republican primary voters (422 Republicans and 178 undeclared voters). The survey had a margin of error of +/- 4% at the 95% confidence interval. It was conducted on April 16 - 21, 2011.
As GOP presidential wannabes begin to flood the state, Mitt Romney continues to hold a double-digit lead over his nearest competitor in the New Hampshire presidential primary. (Though as I’ve said, it doesn’t matter.)
In a new ARG survey of likely Republican primary voters, Romney leads the field with 32%. Donald Trump is his nearest competitor with 17%. Four others —Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul — trail far behind at 8%.
The rest of the field — Bachmann, Barbour, Cain, Daniels, Huntsman, Johnson, Karger, Palin, Pataki, Rand Paul, Pawlenty, Roemer and Santorum — fails to register more than 1 or 2%.
The results are based on telephone interviews of 600 likely Republican primary voters (422 Republicans and 178 undeclared voters). The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4% at the 95% confidence interval. It was conducted on April 16 - 21, 2011.
Projected Democratic seats: 190
